The March Madness National Championship game is college basketball bettors’ last chance to win some money until fall. The game tips off tonight on CBS at 9:20p.m. EDT. After a crazy, unprecedented year, we were rewarded with the most widely anticipated matchup. However, those that have been following since the start will know it is usually top seeds that survive and advance this far.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will attempt to down the Baylor Bears and become the first undefeated champion since Indiana in 1976. Our Final Four bets were salvaged by Jalen Suggs’ heroics, but we remain on the positive side of things for the tournament. The outcomes entering tonight:
- Spread Bets: 7-5, Up ~2.5 Units.
- Upset Specials: 1-2, Ohio +280 won, Villanova +265 and USC +315 (0.25units) lost.
- Futures: 0-3 with Iowa, Loyola, and Arkansas out of the tournament.
- Props: 2-2, with OVER 10.5 Total Final Four Seeds and Jalen Suggs AT LEAST 2 3pt FG Made (+138) hitting.
Going to try and add some padding to the bankroll this evening.
The 2021 March Madness National Championship Game
Only one game left. Bet on history.
GONZAGA (-4.5) vs. Baylor, Monday 9:20p.m., CBS
Before getting too deep into the weeds, reflect one more time on the ridiculous way Gonzaga got here:
What is most absurd is that this was not Jalen Suggs’ best play. His block/save/half-court-length bounce pass with the game tied at 77 was transcendent. The likely top 3 NBA draft pick elevated his game when his team most needed it. On a team with astounding depth, Suggs rose to the top and preserved Gonzaga’s unblemished record.
Both of these contenders feature multiple studs. No one has done more for their draft stock this tournament than Baylor’s Davion Mitchell. The man’s nickname is “Off Night” to denote his ability to shut down his opponent. But his surprisingly adept offense is what has made him millions during the tourney.
Baylor is fresh off its best performance of the season and is definitely peaking at the right time. Their suspect defense has become suffocating as they use their athleticism and length to create havoc among the other team.
Meanwhile, the Zags were just pushed to the limit for the first time all year. UCLA was on a crazy run and played unbelievably. It is not correct to say Gonzaga played poorly. More so, UCLA was great.
We believe there will be a bounce back performance by the Bulldogs. Every great team must overcome a close-call, and Gonzaga just had theirs. KenPom still has them nearly six full points ahead of Baylor in Adjusted Efficiency Margin. That is approximately the same gap as exists between Baylor and Iowa, the seventh highest ranked squad.
The Bears are riding high but may not be ready for Gonzaga to blitz them. Jared Butler, while great, is unlikely to go 4 for 5 from deep once again. Expect some slight regression to the mean.
Put a unit on Gonzaga -4.5 (-105) and try and avoid debates about whether their undefeated season deserves an asterisk.
The Player Prop Bet to Ride
We got a wonderful hit on our last prop bet. Jalen Suggs’ buzzer-beater counted as his second made three-point field goal. Tonight, we are going to bet against one of our favorite players in the whole field.
Drew Timme UNDER 3.5 Assists (-105)
In the 2021 March Madness National Championship game, we will be rooting for Drew Timme in all his mustache’d glory. However, we think there is strong value in wagering against his passing prowess.
On the season, Timme has averaged 2.3 assists per game. While his scoring has gone through the roof in the tournament, his assists numbers are steady. This will be a close call, but Baylor has the size to try and force someone else to beat them. Denying Timme the ball will likely be an essential part of the Bears’ tactics. When he catches in the post, he will be looking to score.
That is a recipe for low assist numbers. Go with a unit on Timme Under 3.5 Assists (-105).
We hope you enjoy the March Madness National Championship game. If you are looking for the best place to win real money wagers, you can find our choices here.
All odds per Bovada at 3:45p.m. EDT on 04/05/2021.