I outlined three favorites, three contenders and three longshot players in my Valspar Championship betting preview. Now, it’s time to make some Valspar Championship betting picks.
Who are the three PGA Tour players that can tame the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club?
Valspar Championship Betting Picks – Favorites
Dustin Johnson (+1200)
It’s going to be fun to watch Johnson and Justin Thomas paired together for the first two rounds, starting off on Thursday at 1:11 PM ET (with all due respect to Joaquin Niemann, the third member of this group). It’s not every day you get to see the top two players in the world together.
But top-ranked Johnson gets the slightest of sports betting edges over second-ranked Thomas because of a T-6 here in 2019, when he shot 69-69-67 and was a shot behind Paul Casey. However, he faded after a final-round 74. Johnson has also been more consistent than Thomas this year (but not by much). Finally, he simply offers a little more golf betting value.
Valspar Championship Betting Picks – Contenders
Corey Conners (+2000)
Paul Casey is going to be a popular pick at the sportsbooks, as he has won the last two editions of the event in 2018 and 2019 (the 2020 tournament was canceled, of course, because of the COVID-19 pandemic). While the Englishman Casey has been playing well this year with a win in Dubai in five top-10s in nine starts this season, I’m going to lean towards the Canadian Conners, who has finished in the top eight four times in six starts since missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational.
Conners has made just one start at Copperhead, and he held the lead after each of the first three rounds, shooting 67-69-68 in 2018. However, he was sunk by a final-round 77. Conners is a much better player now. I’m going Conners, but Casey is also a very good pick if that’s the way you want to go.
Valspar Championship Betting Picks – Longshots
Jason Kokrak (+3300)
Kokrak is played his way into some good Valspar Championship odds. He got his first PGA Tour win at the CJ Cup in October 2020 and after a middling stretch, Kokrak posted three top-10s in a row. He failed to get out of the group stage at the Match-Play event and then finished 49th at The Masters.
However, Kokrak loves this tournament, finishing in the top 15 four times in six starts. He came up just short against Casey in 2019 here, shooting 69-71-66-71 to tie for second with Louis Oosthuizen. Kokrak just needs to be a little more steady with his irons (94th in SG: Approach), but he has shown he can do it. Combine that with a putter that is 21st in SG: Putting, and Kokrak could be a great value pick for golf bettors this week at a course where par is a good score on most holes, especially the closing three-hole stretch they call, “The Snake Pit”.