Featured in this article:
  • Saints are favorite to be last NFL team to lose a game
  • Online sportsbook Bovada offers 300+ season-long prop bets
  • Tom Brady Over/Under touchdown prop is at 29.5

mercury morris 1972 dolphins nfl

Whether it’s true or not, one of my favorite NFL urban legends is that members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins’ perfect season pop champagne after the last unbeaten team falls every year. As we know, the 2007 New England Patriots’ pursuit of perfection fell one game short no thanks to David Tyree’s helmet catch. However, we know Mercury Morris is on stand-by, ready with his ginger ale or whatever, to celebrate this fall. Online sportsbook Bovada has posted more than 300 NFL season-long prop bets to choose from team touchdown totals to Over/Unders and also which NFL team will be last to lose.

It shouldn’t come as a shock that the top four favorites to remain undefeated the longest, happen to also be the top four favorites to win Super Bowl 55. However, whereas Super Bowl odds favor the AFC raising Lombardi’s Trophy, bookmakers and bettors like the top two favorites out of the NFC to rip off the longest win streak to start the season.

Team Odds to be Last Undefeated Team
Saints +450
49ers +500
Ravens +700
Chiefs +800
Seahawks/Eagles/Cowboys +1000

Don’t get it twisted, the Saints’ first four games are no picnic – especially when you consider no team enjoyed any preseason game reps. New Orleans hosts Tom Brady and the Buccaneers’ loaded offense Week 1, have to travel out to Las Vegas Week 2, back home to play the Packers before a trip to Detroit to play the Lions. They’ll be lucky to make it out of September unbeaten.

Brady Regular Season TD’s Odds
Over 29.5 -150
Under 29.5 +115

Speaking of Brady, Bovada set his regular season touchdown total at OVER/UNDER 29.5. He averaged 28.3 passing touchdowns his last three seasons with the Patriots. However, there’s a reason the OVER 29.5 is favored at -150, or 60 percent implied probability, and that has to do with a supporting cast of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and under-the-radar slot receiver Scott Miller. Evans and Godwin combined for nearly 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns last year with Jameis Winston. Brady may not be in the prime of his career, but if his precision passing remains above-average, he’ll cruise to hit this OVER.

Hopkins Reg. Season Rec. Yards Odds
Over 1125.5 -125
Under 1125.5 -105

Another new face in a new place, DeAndre Hopkins was traded by Houston general manager/head coach Bill O’Brien to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for running back David Johnson. The addition of D-Hop, arguably a top three receiver on any given week, provides Kyler Murray another reliable target when paired with the cagey veteran, Larry Fitzgerald. Hopkins averaged 1,371 yards his final three seasons with Deshaun Watson. However, the stat you need to know before you place this bet is that Hopkins racked up 1,500+ receiving yards back in 2015 with Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett behind center. Murray’s gotta be better than that duo, right?

Newton Reg. Season Rush Yards Odds
Over 549.5 -105
Under 549.5 -125

Depending on how you view his injury history, we’re either on Cam Newton 2.0 or 3.0 with his fresh start in New England. With a sub-optimal receiving corps, one would assume that Bill Belichick will allow his new quarterback to call his own number as he did down in Carolina. In 30 games between 2017-18, Newton averaged 621 rush yards per season. So, whether or not Newton exceeds 549.5 comes down to how much Belichick wants to protect his quarterback, while at the same time keeping an eye on the 2021 NFL Draft, where he’ll no doubt look to add another QB.

Rivers Reg. Season Interceptions Odds
Over 13.5 -115
Under 13.5 -115

After 16 seasons, Philip Rivers said goodbye to San Die, err, Los Angel, err, whatever. The sidearm slinger will likely finish out his NFL career as a member of the Indianapolis Colts. Known for passing into traffic and/or winding up and chunking it down field, coaches know the risks that come with Rivers behind center. He threw 20 interceptions last season and 22 back in 2016, sandwiched in-between were seasons of 10 and 12 interceptions, respectively. So, it’s assumed that Rivers will throw double-digit picks this season. I just can’t get the image of Rivers going deep to T.Y. Hilton and under-throwing him each and every time.

Young Reg. Season Sacks Odds
Over 8.5 -135
Under 8.5 +105

San Francisco’s Nick Bosa was on pace last season to break Jevon Kearse’s rookie record for quarterback sacks, but fell 5.5 short. Kearse’s mark of 14.5 set back in 1999 will be tested once again by Washington Football Team’s top pick, Chase Young. With how often one expects the WFT defense to be on the field this year, it’s reasonable to expect the former Ohio State pass rusher to easily surpass 8.5 sacks by mid-season this year. Take the OVER!

Ryan Fowler

Ryan has covered sports on every media platform over the past 17+ years. The first seven years of his professional career were spent as a sports anchor and reporter at various local television stations, while he picked up side gigs as a freelance sports columnist and recurring radio guest before he decided to jump to the web. As content manager of sports simulation website WhatIfSports.com and senior editor of FOXSports.com's fantasy baseball and football coverage for the better part of this decade, Ryan embraces advanced metrics, trends, and outside-the-box angles to find his edge. You can follow him on Twitter @FreelanceFowler.

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