- Bryson DeChambeau is the golf betting favorite at +1200
- Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy are lurking
- Daniel Berger and Billy Horschel should be solid value picks
The Fedex Cup playoffs begin with the Northern Trust Open, and Gamble Online is going to give you five picks to check out in your sportsbook over each of the next three weeks. The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up at TPC Boston, but only five PGA Tour players should be among your Northern Trust Open odds picks.
TPC Boston is the site of the Northern Trust Open, which is usually played in New York or New Jersey. However, TPC Boston lost the Dell Technologies Championship when the FedEx Cup playoffs was cut down to three events. But players will definitely be familiar with the golf course as they played there from 2003 to 2018 at the Dell Technologies Championship. It was formerly the Deutsche Bank Championship. As was mentioned, the top 125 players will be in the field. However, only the top 70 players in the points will go on to the BMW Championship next week. Then, the top 30 finishes the season at the Tour Championship. There is a lot at stake at both ends of the standings.
As always, you can watch at The Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday at 3:00 PM ET. It continues on Saturday at 1:00 PM ET and Sunday at 1:30 PM ET.
CBS takes over the action at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, and 2:30 PM ET on Sunday.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)
DeChambeau has been one of the biggest stories in golf since the restart of the season due to COVID-19, literally and figuratively. He put on 40 pounds of muscle to hit the ball farther, and he leads the PGA Tour in driving distance. DeChambeau has also made noise for arguing with rules officials, camera operators, whoever he can find at these fan-less events.
However, DeChambeau is fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, eighth in the world and the sports betting favorite for this event. He won at TPC Boston in 2018 at the Dell Technologies Championship, then turned around and won the Northern Trust Open at Ridgewood in New Jersey the next week. DeChambeau has eight top-10s in his last 12 starts, including a win in Michigan last month. DeChambeau needs to work on his approach (97th in Shots Gained: Approach) and short game (127th in SG: Around The Green). If it all comes together, he can overpower the field.
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Thomas is second in the world to Jon Rahm, but he leads the FedEx Cup standings and has probably been the most consistent player in the world since the restart. In seven post-restart events, Thomas has four top-10s, including a win in Tennessee. He stumbled a bit at the PGA Championship, where he finished T-37. However, Thomas should be rested heading into TPC Boston, where he won in 2017 en route to the FedEx Cup.
Thomas is as solid as anyone, ranking first in SG: Tee to Green. He also leads in SG: Approach, which is going to come in handy on TPC Boston’s small greens. Thomas also ranks 103rd in SG: Putting, but he is 31st in fourth-round putting. If he is around the lead on Sunday, watch out for Thomas, who is just behind DeChambeau in these Northern Trust Open odds.
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
It has been a wildly disappointing restart for McIlroy, the world’s third-ranked player and eighth in the FedEx Cup standings. In six starts, he has yet to break into the top 10; his best result was a T-11 in Hartford. Prior to that, McIlroy had ran off six straight top-five finishes, including a win in China last November. However, McIlroy is returning to a golf course which he obviously likes. The defending FedEx Cup champion won at TPC Boston in 2012 and 2016. Also, no one has earned more money here than McIlroy.
From tee to green, McIlroy is as solid as anyone, ranking fourth in SG: Tee to Green. However, he is 108th in SG: Putting. The flatstick goes particularly cold on the weekend. McIlroy is 82nd in third-round putting and 61st in fourth-round putting. He’ll give himself chances with his approach game, but McIlroy has to start putting better on Saturday and Sunday.
Daniel Berger (+2800)
Berger is one spot ahead of McIlroy in the FedEx Cup standings. He is also a very respectable 18th in the world rankings. Berger is coming off a T-13 at the PGA Championship, and he has been on fire since the restart. He won the first event back in Texas at Colonial, and has also finished T-3 and T-2 in events. Other than a missed cut at the Memorial, you could argue that Berger has been the best player on the PGA Tour since the restart, along with Thomas. He had a T-12 in his first start at TPC Boston in 2015. However, Berger failed to crack the top 30 in three following starts.
Berger isn’t going to overpower anyone. But he is simply solid from tee to green (12th in SG for that category). He is also 14th in SG: Putting, and is 10th in fourth-round putting. Berger offers a little more value than the favorites as well. His Northern Trust Open odds are definitely worth a look.
Billy Horschel (+4000)
Horschel is an even bigger value pick, sitting at 25th in the FedEx Cup standings and 30th in the world. He is coming off a solo second in North Carolina, although Horschel had two good chances to win on the closing holes. He has struggled at TPC Boston in his last three starts, with two missed cuts and a withdrawal. However, Horschel did finish T-2 here in 2014, which he rode to two straight wins to claim an unlikely FedEx Cup.
Horschel ranks 115th in SG: Approach, which is tough because he ranks 11th in SG: Putting. On Sundays, Horschel is eighth on the PGA Tour in putting. If he can sort out his approach game, Horschel give himself a chance on Sunday and get some big real money for golf betting players.