The 2020 abridged and retooled college football season has all the clarity of murky swamp. While the Pac-12, Big Ten, Mid-American and other programs elected to punt their seasons to the spring, the Southeastern Conference, better known as the SEC, Big 12, ACC, AAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA are scheduled to kick off their seasons in the coming weeks. However, whereas Alabama’s Nick Saban, LSU’s Ed Orgeron and Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin are accustomed to calling the shots, they’re holding a clipboard, while the coronavirus pandemic continues to bark out the next play. As we recently witnessed when the University of North Carolina pivoted to remote learning after a covid outbreak, we need to see if and how college students’ return to campus negatively impacts the odds of a 2020 season actually happening. Until then, the good people over at BetOnline sportsbook have posted SEC win total odds for all 14 programs.
| Team | Over Win Total | Under Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 8 (-165) | 8 (+135) |
| Arkansas | 1.5 (+125) | 1.5 (-155) |
| Auburn | 6.5 (-115) | 6.5 (-115) |
| Florida | 7.5 (-115) | 7.5 (-115) |
| Georgia | 8 (-115) | 8 (-115) |
| Kentucky | 5 (-145) | 5 (+115) |
| LSU | 7 (-140) | 7 (+110) |
| Mississippi State | 4 (+130) | 4 (-160) |
| Missouri | 2.5 (-140) | 2.5 (+110) |
| Ole Miss | 4 (-115) | 4 (-115) |
| South Carolina | 3.5 (-130) | 3.5 (EVEN) |
| Tennessee | 5 (-115) | 5 (-115) |
| Texas A&M | 7 (-115) | 7 (-115) |
|
Vanderbilt
|
1 (+110) | 1 (-140) |
The Favorites
As is typically the case, the Alabama Crimson Tide are favored to win the most SEC games. While Georgia’s Over/Under win total is also currently* pegged at 8-wins, the Tide’s OVER odds juice is stronger. At -165, there’s a 62.26 percent implied probability that Alabama wins more than 8 SEC games, while the Bulldogs’ -115 O/U odds implies 53.49 percent chance that it either exceeds or falls short of the 8-win plateau. The Tide heads into the season winners of double-digit games in each of the past 12 seasons.
The Florida Gators ripped off four straight wins to cap their 2019 campaign. Based on BetOnline’s most-recent odds, Dan Mullen’s program is projected to win 7-8 games (-115 odds on both sides of 7.5), but a number of players were absent from the team’s first training camp practice earlier this week.
“We had a couple guys not practice today, but we’ll see how that goes moving forward for us,” Mullen said. “But, you know, I wouldn’t be surprised if you have guys opt out. I’m going to support them fully.”
Defending National Champions, LSU, is favored to win more than 7 of their games despite the loss of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow. At -140, the Tigers’ implied probability to hit OVER 7 wins is better than 58 percent.
- odds subject to change
The Up-and-Comer
The Lane Kiffin Era begins at Ole Miss under pandemic conditions, but perhaps his coaching style works better during chaos and anything is better than the decades-long norm. Since 1972, the Rebels have won 10-or-more games just twice. That’s not a typo. It’s a huge Eeyore-approve storm cloud hanging over University, Mississippi. While nobody expects Kiffin to flip the program into a national title contender overnight and in the midst of pandemic conditions, the sportsbook gives him a solid shot at picking up five SEC wins in year one.
The Dogs
The SEC is lauded as being the toughest college football conference to win. So, when you’re a projected cellar dweller and now have to compete in an SEC-only schedule without the every-now-and-again non-conference win to boost team morale, 2020 will be a tough slog for both Arkansas and Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks are favored to finish UNDER 1.5 wins at -155, or 60.78 implied probability that the team wins one-or-no games. Meanwhile, the Commodores have won 6-or-fewer total games in each of the past six seasons and are currently favored to go 0-10. At -140, BetOnline’s bookmakers project an implied probability of 58.33 percent that Vandy fails to win one contest.
