- Biden -115 favorite over Trump -105 at Bovada
- Biden back up to -130 at BetOnline, Trump +110
- ABC, Trump host first town hall event of campaign season
As the leaves begin to change color, the dog days of summer have, mercifully, passed the proverbial baton to the final six weeks of the U.S. election season. Autumn’s auburns, yellows, oranges and browns will jockey for position among a sea of red and blue up until voting concludes on November 3 and then all bets are off. However, as of now, 2020 election betting odds remain on the table, despite some stagnation over the past two weeks. Following the Republican National Convention, President Donald Trump closed the odds gap between himself and Democratic challenger Joe Biden, but over the past two weeks, the former vice-president has managed to snatch back the favorite title. Biden is a -130 favorite, or 56.52 percent implied probability at online sportsbook BetOnline, while Trump checks in at +110. Over at Bovada, presidential election odds are stuck in a quagmire with Biden the -115 favorite over Trump, -105.
|2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds||Online Sportsbook (9/16/20)||Online Sportsbook (9/16/20)|
|Donald Trump||-115||+110 (was -110)|
|Joe Biden||-105||-130 (was -110)|
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Main Headlines
The Bob Woodward Book, Rage
Shortly after publishing Gamble Online’s weekly U.S. election odds update feature last week, news broke about the details of Bob Woodward’s new book on President Trump titled “Rage.”
While we could spend the next 2,000 words digging into the contents of the journalist’s latest investigative report, the crux of the subject matter was Trump’s acknowledgement of coronavirus’ as a deadly pandemic back in February.
“That’s a very tricky one,” Trump said to Woodward speaking of COVID-19. “That’s a very delicate one. It’s almost more deadly than even your strenuous flus. This is five percent (CV mortality rate), versus one percent and less than one percent (flu). You know? So, this is deadly stuff.”
As we know, President Trump would go to great lengths to play down just how serious the conronavirus was because, in his words, he didn’t want to worry the nation.
“I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic,” Trump was recorded as saying during taped interviews with Woodward.
However, Trump changed his tone during his first town hall with undecided voters last night.
Trump’s ABC News Town Hall
In an “Art of the Deal” type moment, President Trump claims that while he down played the pandemic verbally, he up-played it via action.
In a special @ABC2020, Pres. Trump disputes uncommitted voter who asked why he downplayed a virus that has disproportionately affected communities of color: “I up-played it, in terms of action. My action was very strong.”
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) September 16, 2020
Now, talking out both sides of one’s mouth is a politician’s greatest skill. However, Trump’s revisionist history of tone and tenor of the moment back in late-February and early-March, when he claims he knew how deadly the coronavirus was, doesn’t jive with one up-playing anything. His muted verbal response twisted a worldwide pandemic into a political beach ball batted from one side of the aisle to the other and led to confusion throughout the country that still exists to this day.
In some places, this type of revelation would lead to change, but not in 2020 with Teflon Don in office. A week later, Woodward’s book is *this close* to page two news, chewed up by the 24-hour news cycle and mentally exhausted audience.
Biden’s Muffled Message
While neither candidate will go down as one of the great political orators of all-time, Biden’s message continues to get muffled. These types of campaign faux pas might not happen as often as some conservative media outlets and pundits may make you believe, but they do hinder his ability to articulate a clear and concise message as to WHY he is the right man for the job and sell his vision for America the next four years.
All things being even, if Trump is going to be criticized for his rants on raking California forests to deter wildfire spread, Biden had to be held to a higher standard during public speaking events.
Big Ten Football’s Return
Oh, the Big Ten announced this week that the conference will indeed have a fall football season. Even this decision, somehow, turned political at some point.
Great News: BIG TEN FOOTBALL IS BACK. All teams to participate. Thank you to the players, coaches, parents, and all school representatives. Have a FANTASTIC SEASON! It is my great honor to have helped!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2020
However, legendary Penn State football head coach Joe Paterno’s son believes the conference reversing course and finding a path to playing may be a deciding factor come November 3.
Trump may have just won the election. The B1G returns to action 10/24. Trump will carpet bomb those games with ads taking credit.
When the history of this election is written, the B1G may end up swinging it.
— Scott Paterno (@ScottPaterno) September 16, 2020
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions
The conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports is out with their weekly White House watch poll and it found Trump ahead by one point, 47-46, among a national telephone and online survey of 2,500 likely voters. It’s President Trump’s first lead since this polling began.
Rasmussen’s daily Trump approval index is up to -1 (negative one) from -8 (negative eight) this time last week.
FiveThirtyEight’s weighted national poll collective has Biden leading by 7-8 points and winning 76 out of every 100 simulated elections in their models. There’s less than a 1-in-100 chances that the electoral college maps looks exactly as it did in 2016 when President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.
In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.