- According to BetOnline, 57% of election bets are on Joe Biden to win
- President Donald Trump's odds to win dip to new low at BetOnline
- Both candidates to hold town hall events this week
As it pertains to U.S. presidential election betting trends, the proverbial script has been flipped. Back in late-August online sportsbook Bovada reported that 60 percent of election bets were placed on President Donald Trump to win. This week, fellow sportsbook BetOnline reported that though election odds fluctuate, roughly 57 percent of bets placed were now on Biden to win. Based on odds movement between late-August and mid-October at both outlets, we can infer that betting action at Bovada is also favoring the Democratic challenger at this point in the campaign. Why?
Back in late-August, Biden’s odds to win were -115 compared to -200 this week, which is up from -175 this time last week. Over at BetOnline, Biden’s odds have reached an all-time best -225, or 69.23 percent implied probability to win. President Trump’s odds dipped to new lows, +170 and +180, at Bovada and BetOnline, respectively.
| 2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds | Online Sportsbook (10/14/20) | Online Sportsbook (10/14/20) |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Bovada | BetOnline |
| Donald Trump | +170 (Last week +145) | +180 (Last week +160) |
| Joe Biden | -200 (Last week -175) | -225 (Last week -190) |
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Presidential Town Halls
With the second presidential debate cancelled after campaigns failed to agree on format (i.e. virtual, in-person) following President Trump’s positive coronavirus test, the two candidates will now hold town hall events on competing networks this Thursday night. Former vice-president Biden’s town hall will be aired on ABC, while NBC announced Wednesday morning they booked Trump’s primetime event. For what it’s worth, the White House doctor announced earlier this week that the president tested negative for coronavirus back-to-back days. As of now, the third presidential debate, to be held in Nashville, Tennessee on October 22, remains on the schedule.
New Election Prop Bets
BetOnline recently posted some new 2020 election prop bet odds. Most notable among the bunch are the projected balance of power in Congress.
Odds on Democrats maintaining majority control in the House of Representatives are through the roof at -3300, with a strong belief that the left side of the aisle wins more than 209.5 seats. However, the odds on which party will earn majority control in the Senate is worthy of an eye-brow raise as BOL has Democrats pegged heavy favorites at -225 with Republican-held Senate odds coming back at +160.
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions
The president’s daily approval rating index at the conservative polling outlet Rasmussen Reports is at negative-8 (-8) for the second time in as many days, but much better than the negative teens he saw most of last week. Rasmussen’s White House Watch weekly presidential race polling has Biden’s lead cut from 12 points this time last week to five today.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, their cumulative average of 2020 presidential general election polls has Joe Biden ahead by 10.6 points, which caused 538 founder Nate Silver to tweet this:
Slightly contradictory thoughts:
1. We’re 15 days out from the 1st debate, which is getting to be outside the period where you could attribute Biden’s gains to a short-lived debate bounce.
2. Still, a 10-11 point lead is a LOT & may be hard to sustain.https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ pic.twitter.com/qtHxSM3DkT
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2020
In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.
