- Biden 62.26 percent implied probability to win 2020 election
- Polling data heavily favors Biden across the board
- Odds on if either candidate will drop out before the election
Somewhat lost in the pandemic, murder hornet headlines and return of the NBA, MLB, NHL and sports betting that comes with it, is the fact that the 2020 U.S. election is now less than three months away. As has been the case the past two months, former vice-president Joe Biden’s odds to win the election remain strong and well ahead of incumbent President Donald Trump. Over at online sportsbook Bovada, Biden’s odds are -165, or 62.26 percent implied probability to win, while President Trump’s odds come back at +140, or 41.67 percent implied probability.
|Odds to win 2020 U.S. Election|
2020 United States Election Odds Analysis
At this point, less is more for Biden, while President Trump can’t get in front of a camera often enough as he attempts to boost his sagging approval ratings.
The pandemic has provided Biden some campaign cover in that he hasn’t needed to appear at dozens of campaign events, fundraisers and public speaking events. The latter is where one could make a strong case that if not for the coronavirus, Biden’s own on-the-record commentary at rallies or during interviews could cost him the heavy odds lead currently enjoyed at most sportsbooks. Less is more applies to many things in life and at the moment, it could win Joe Biden the White House.
As for President Trump, he’s brought back quasi-daily coronavirus taskforce media briefings, sans Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx. If you’ve been following the headlines the past two-three months, for as respected as Dr. Fauci is on a national level, it’s obvious that the president’s jealousy turned him off to promoting Dr. Fauci’s medical recommendations.
“So it sort of is curious, a man works for us, and yet they’re highly thought of and nobody likes me. It can only be my personality,” Trump said.
Dr. Birx felt Trump’s wrath earlier this week after admitting the coronavirus is now widespread, or, in other words, far from under control due to an inconsistent plan to curtail the pandemic at its height.
So Crazy Nancy Pelosi said horrible things about Dr. Deborah Birx, going after her because she was too positive on the very good job we are doing on combatting the China Virus, including Vaccines & Therapeutics. In order to counter Nancy, Deborah took the bait & hit us. Pathetic!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 3, 2020
U.S. Election Poll Position
After a rough July, the conservative leaning Rasmussen Trump Approval Daily Index has enjoyed an uptick into the negative single digits after spending most of last month in the negative teens. This index hasn’t turned positive since February 25. Additionally, Rasmussen reported that only 26 percent of those likely U.S. voters polled believe the country is headed in the right direction.
Over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s popularity was under the spotlight recently with 54.6 percent disapproving and only 41.5 approving. What’s unique about FiveThirtyEight’s polls is that they are cumulative of dozens of polls and account for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. The site also reported that Biden is polling better in the moment than Hillary Clinton ever did during her peak back in 2016.
Political Prop Bets
For some U.S. voters, the 2020 election is a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils. That is to say, they don’s really support Biden or Trump 100%, but the act of voting provides them a perceived democratic voice. Perhaps some of these voters would be more interested in seeing either candidate drop out of the race before November. The bookmakers over at Bovada also cooked up odds on if either will drop out before November 1, 2020.
|Will Either Biden or Trump Drop Out Before November 1, 2020?|
|Joe Biden||Yes +400 | No -650|
|Donald Trump||Yes +600 | No -1200|
While one wouldn’t expect either candidate to drop out this deep into the race, you also have to remember the year is 2020, full of the unexpected. So, Trump +600 does possess some value as he’s been a wild card since taking office nearly four years ago.