- Joe Biden officially named Democratic presidential candidate
- Biden's odds lead over Trump shrinks
- Latest polling numbers for Biden and Trump
The balloons didn’t rain down from the ceiling, the pomp and circumstance was virtual and – like everything else these days – the historic moment felt socially distant. Former vice-president Joe Biden was officially nominated as the Democratic candidate for the 2020 U.S. election on the second night of the Democratic virtual convention. For Biden, it’s an accomplishment he’s tried to achieve since the late 1980’s and in doing so cements a showdown with incumbent President Donald Trump. We’re less than three months away from election day U.S.A. and while Biden’s odds to win have dipped somewhat since naming Senator Kamala Harris his vice-presidential running mate, he still maintains a healthy lead over President Trump. As of the morning of August 19 at online sportsbook Bovada, Biden’s odds rested at -145, or 59.18 percent implied probability, while Mr. Trump’s rose 10 points week-over-week to +125, or 44.44 percent implied probability. For some context, the bookmakers at BetOnline have President Trump near EVEN money at +105. So, if you like Trump to win, Bovada provides better value at the moment.
|Odds to win 2020 U.S. Election|
Democratic Convention Analysis
Due to the virtual setting and format, it’s really difficult to sink one’s teeth into and glean much information that would drastically impact the election odds race between Trump and Biden. The presidential challenger does possess the slight advantage of having Republican political figures on his side. While former Ohio governor, and former presidential candidate, John Kasich and former Secretary of State Colin Powell decided to buck a trend and put country over party for the sake of this election, it’s hard to fathom President Trump earning the same type of support from any member residing on the left side of the aisle.
A 4-star general, Powell believes there is a lack of values within the current administration.
“The values I learned growing up in the South Bronx and serving in uniform were the same values that Joe Biden’s parents instilled in him in Scranton, Pennsylvania. I support Joe Biden for the presidency of the United States because those values still define him, and we need to restore those values to the White House,” Powell said
To reiterate, Biden’s odds to win dipped since last week and I’d be hard pressed to believe a moment or moments from the Democratic convention will boost them back up. In the moment, he’s really done a nice job embracing his inner-Aaron Burr’s suggestion to “talk less, smile more” and let President Trump do enough talking for both candidates, much to his approval ranking regression following recent interviews.
2020 U.S. Election Odds Analysis: Pole Position
After three consecutive days of improving daily approval ratings at the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports, President Trump’s daily rating for August 19 checked in at -9 with 44% of those polled strongly disapproving of the current president. He ended last week with an overall daily job approval rate of 47%.
The same outlet reported last week that just 28% of likely voters believe the United States is headed in the right direction. That metric jumped two points to 30% the week of August 17th.
One other nugget worth mentioning since we touched on Kasich’s appearance and speech during the Democratic convention is that a Rasmussen national telephone and online survey found that only 22% of likely U.S. voters believe President Trump will be hurt by the aisle swapping. However, 51% believe Kasich supporting Biden will have no impact at all.
Meanwhile Biden leads Trump by nine points in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, 50-41. The study also indicated that Biden possesses a double-digit approval lead on topics including coronavirus, immigration, health care, race relations and uniting the country.
And yet, Democratic pollster Peter Hart was quick to note that this election is far from over since a majority of voters are uncertain or pessimistic about Biden’s aptitude for the position. Those seeds of doubt are exactly why Biden’s lead over Trump isn’t wider to-date.