- Dustin Johnson is the golf betting favorite this week
- Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau are also top picks
- Daniel Berger and Ryan Palmer are good value picks
Dustin Johnson put on one of the most dominant performances on the PGA Tour in a long time, routing the field at the Northern Trust with an 11-shot win. It makes complete sense why he is the golf betting favorite in the BMW Championship odds for the second event of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
The North Course at Olympic Fields is located in Olympia Fields, just outside of Chicago, Illinois. It has hosted four major tournaments, most recently the U.S. Open in 2003. Olympia Fields was also the host of the Women’s PGA Championship in 2017. This no-cut event is also a long one as Olympia Fields stretches out to 7,366, making it an extremely lengthy par-70 course.
As per usual, you can watch the first two rounds on the Golf Channel at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday and Friday. The Golf Channel continues on Saturday and Sunday at 12:00 PM ET and 1:00 PM ET, respectively. NBC Sports will take over the coverage on those days at 3:00 PM ET.
Dustin Johnson (BMW Championship Odds of +800)
The laidback Johnson will never say that Brooks Koepka’s “He’s only won one” comment bothered him, prior to the final round of the PGA Tournament. So, he took it out on TPC Boston. His 11-shot win was the largest margin of victory on the PGA Tour since 2006, when Phil Mickelson won by 13. Johnson was in complete control of his game from tee to green, and once again, he is the top-ranked player in the world. He also finished T-2 at the PGA Championship (where he was six shots better than Koepka on Sunday), and has two wins since the restart.
We all know how good Johnson is with his driver, and his length will help him at Olympia Fields. He is also a force when he putts well. Johnson has to improve his short game, where he is 120th in Shots Gained: Around the Green. However, if he plays like he did in Boston, there won’t be much the field can do to stop Johnson.
Justin Thomas (BMW Championship Odds of +1200)
Thomas is ranked third in the world, just below Jon Rahm (who has BMW Championship Odds of +1000). He has cooled off a bit after a 2-T18-1 run, finishing T-37 at the PGA Championship and T-49 at the Northern Trust. However, Thomas is the defending champion at this event, which was held at Medinah in 2019. Thomas won by three strokes, and heads to another course that should reward his tee-to-green game.
Thomas’ putting can run hot and cold. He is ranked 123rd in Shots Gained: Putting. However, he is also 38th in fourth-round putting, so if he is around the lead on Sunday, he can make the putts when he needs to. Thomas has to find another gear to challenge Johnson, but he offers solid sports betting odds this week.
Bryson DeChambeau (BMW Championship Odds of +1200)
DeChambeau, the eighth-ranked player in the world, missed the cut at the Northern Trust, his second missed cut in four events. However, it’s tough to leave him off the list as he returns to a place where he has good memories. DeChambeau rolled to the U.S. Amateur title in 2015 at Olympia Fields. Therefore, everyone wants to see how the newly beefed-up DeChambeau handles this course in his current form.
But as many people expected, DeChambeau is still figuring out how to handle shorter distances. Of course, he hits it extremely far, leading the PGA Tour at 324 yard per drive. He is also a great putter, ranking eighth in SG: Putting. But he is 103rd in SG: Approach, and 115th in SG: Around The Green. When he is on, he is fun to watch. Will he be on this week? His BMW Championship odds are worth a look.
Daniel Berger (BMW Championship Odds of +2000)
Berger is playing with a huge chip on his shoulder as the world golf rankings were frozen in March, when Berger was outside of the top 100. That means no trip to Augusta for the Masters, which is now going to be held in November. This is even though Berger has rattled off an outstanding stretch of golf, before and after the restart. In his last nine starts, Berger has finished T9-T5-T4-1-T3-MC-T2-T13-3 and is now 13th in the world, so it’s a shame that he’ll miss out on going to Georgia.
However, Berger can use that energy for good at Olympia Fields. He doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses in his game right now from tee to green and he is on fire on Sundays. Berger is third on the PGA Tour in fourth-round scoring and seventh in fourth-putting. As far as value goes for BMW Championship odds, Berger is probably the best of the top players.
Ryan Palmer (BMW Championship Odds of +8000)
Palmer offers a ton of value with his odds, and is ranked 34th in the world. He has finished 2-T15-T-43-T8 in his last four starts, and the Northern Trust was a nice boost for him. Palmer ranks 149th in SG: Putting, but he was T-1 in the field last week in putting. Palmer is decent off the tee (35th) and approaching the green (37th), but he is also 104th around the green and we’ve already mentioned his putting.
That being said, Palmer can be a threat when he puts it all together. He needs to as Palmer sits 22nd in the FedEx Cup standings. The top 30 go to East Lake for the Tour Championship. A solid finish would make sure that Palmer gets to head to Atlanta next week.