- Colts trail Titans by one game in AFC South.
- The Titans are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- Philip Rivers is 4-4 ATS in eight games as the Colts starting quarterback.
Not only did the Colts blow a halftime lead, but Philip Rivers and company allowed the Ravens to win their first game in 21 tries when trailing at the break. Indy’s first home loss of the season dropped them to 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread as they failed to cover as 1-point home favorites.
The Titans continue to win ugly. Ryan Tannehill only completed 10 passes, Derrick Henry rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry and the defense let Nick Foles and the Bears score 17 fourth-quarter points in a 24-17 victory to improve to 6-2 straight up and 2-5 against the spread.
|Week 10: Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Game Info|
|Date: November 12, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET|
|Stadium: Nissan Stadium|
|TV Coverage: FOX|
|Opening Odds: Titans -1 | O/U 50.5|
|How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews|
Tennessee opened as 1-point home favorites, but the line has since ticked up to Titans -2.5 as of Monday morning. The Colts moneyline opened at EVEN, but is now around +125. The point total opened at 50.5, but dipped down to 49. The total has gone OVER in five of the Titans last seven games and three of the Colts’ four road games.
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
Colts News and Notes
A quick scan of the Ravens-Colts box score illustrates just how difficult it was for Indy to gain any sort of offensive momentum. They converted just 2-of-12 third downs, Rivers only completed 58 percent of his passes and Baltimore converted the Colts’ two turnovers into 14 points. Plus, according to the team’s website, Indianapolis finished with one yard on four plays in the third quarter, a testament to Baltimore’s control of the clock and tempo.
To their credit, the Colts held the Ravens offense to just 4.2 yards per play. For those unfamiliar, many bettors believe there is an ATS win correlation to extreme HIGH and LOW YPP averages. In this instance, however, holding the Ravens down to 4.2 YPP likely failed to cover the spread due to two costly turnovers converted into 14 points – a.k.a. the point differential at the end of the game.
Heading into Week 10, Indy has only played one divisional contest – a Week 1 loss to the Jaguars. They face the Titans twice over the next three weeks and Texans twice over the next six.
On the injury front, T.Y. Hilton missed the Ravens game due to a groin injury and last time I checked, those don’t miraculously heal four days later. One would think he’s doubtful for Thursday night. Primary tight end Jack Doyle left the Ravens game in the first half due to a concussion. It would be a surprise if he’s active against the Titans. It’s too bad as the Titans rank 27th against the pass.
Titans News and Notes
When I noted in the lede that the Titans continue to win ugly, that wasn’t a subjective opinion. Through eight games, the leaders of the AFC South’s scoring margin is just +3.8 points per game. I have little doubt Thursday night’s clash will come down to the wire, too.
If you didn’t watch the Bears-Titans game, the final score can be deceiving. Tennessee dominated much of the first three quarters, but failed to slam the door on a reeling offense. As Nick Foles has proven time and time again, don’t leave the back-door open because he’ll walk right through it.
Though Chicago’s offense is hard to watch, their defense has continued to rank among the top 10 units in the league. So, it’s worth noting that the Bears held a team averaging 29.7 points per game to 24 and, of more relevance, a Titans offense averaging 6.0 yards per play to 4.1 YPP last Sunday.
Why do these stats matter?
Because while the Bears defense remains well above-average, the Colts defense – led by Darius Leonard – are among the top two most-elite units in all of football. Derrick Henry can’t rush 21 times for 68 yards and expect Tennessee to run away with a victory on the short week. The Titans can’t convert just 6-of-15 third downs and make one trip to the red zone and expect to crush the Colts. It’s going to take more – on both sides of the football – to earn this victory.
Betting Pick: Titans -2.5
Without question, Tennessee is a tough nut to crack and you’re not exactly sure which iteration of the offense you’re going to get from week to week. However, if T.Y. Hilton is out again with the groin injury and Jack Doyle fails to clear concussion protocol, those are two primary targets missing that Philip Rivers desperately needs to move the chains. Typically homefield advantage equates to 3 points. So, at -2.5-point favorites, I’ll take the Titans at the slight discount.