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  • The Falcons have blown back-to-back 15-point 4th quarter leads
  • The Packers are 3-0 against the spread this season
  • Davante Adams is questionable for Monday night's game

Prior to 2020, no team in NFL history had ever blown two 15-point, 4th quarter leads in NFL history. The Falcons just accomplished the feat in back-to-back weeks. Atlanta’s 30-26 meltdown loss to the Bears dropped them to 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread.

No Davante Adams, no problem for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who took advantage of a late-second half turnover of Taysom Hill and converted it into three points to take the lead for good. Green Bay’s 37-30 upset win at New Orleans moved the Pack to 3-0 straight up and against the spread.

Week 4: Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Game Info
Date: October 5, 2020, 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: Lambeau Field
TV Coverage: ESPN
Opening Odds: Packers -6 | O/U 57.5
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Green Bay opened as 6-point home favorites before a move to Packers -7.5 Monday afternoon. The Falcons moneyline was listed at +195 at open, but is nearing 3-to-1. The point total opened at a monster 57.5 and actually ticked up to 58 as neither team is defensively gifted. The total has gone OVER in five consecutive Packers games.

The total has gone OVER in six of Atlanta’s last seven games and the Packers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven HOME games against the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons News and Notes

matt ryan falcons nfl

At this point, the Falcons’ inability to close out games is low-hanging fruit for those working on new material in hopes that the Chuckle Hut will come calling. We get it, they blew a sizeable lead against the Patriots in the Super Bowl and, more recently, 15-point leads to the Cowboys and Bears. However, one of those three is not like the other. I’m not giving Atlanta a pass on Sunday’s embarrassing loss, but let’s be fair, the Falcons defense didn’t prepare to face Nick Foles.

The veteran quarterback has proven time and time again he can win in the league and managed to carve up the Falcons secondary for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Hell, look at what Justin Herbert did to the Chiefs Week 2 when Kansas City thought they were facing Tyrod Taylor all week. These things happen. It just stinks for the Falcons that egg struck their face twice in two weeks.

Let’s look at the positives from Week 3:

  • Todd Gurley averaged 5.7 yards per rush and the Falcons racked up 144 rush yards and two scores
  • Calvin Ridley stepped up in place of an injured and inactive Julio Jones. Ridley posted 110 yards on five receptions
  • The defense picked off both Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles

A 7-9 team of a season ago that finished on a heater is not going to flip the script overnight and become world beaters. This isn’t a question of talent, it’s a question of desire to close out a game.

Matt Ryan continues to air it out and lead a top five pass offense. There’s a difference between losses and inability to cover a 7.5-point spread on the road. Atlanta is more than capable of the latter.

Green Bay Packers News and Notes

Here’s all you need to know about the Packers through the first three games:

  • They are averaging 40.7 points per game (1st)
  • They are averaging 5.3 red zone trips per game (1st)
  • They are averaging 171.7 rush yards per game (2nd)
  • They are converting 50% of their third downs (4th)
  • They are averaging 288 pass yards per game (5th)

I don’t know about you, but if Aaron Rodgers’ averaging 288 pass yards per game is your biggest worry on offense, that’s living right.

Granted, it’s a different story on the other side of the ball. The Packers allow 6.6 yards per play – most in the NFL, which plays right into the hands of the Falcons hyper-offense. Green Bay also struggles on stopping opposing offenses on third down as they convert 48.3 percent of the time – something that was an issue in their win over the Saints.

Betting Pick: OVER 58

That seven and a hook has me nervous, it’s baiting me to back the Dirty Birds. No matter what you think about the Falcons, their offense remains loaded enough to cover a touchdown-plus on the road and especially against a Packers defense that just allowed 30 to a Michael Thomas-less Saints squad. With that said, I’ll fade the spread and root for the shootout between Rodgers and Ryan and look forward to a 40-30 final.

Check out our expert NFL betting guide if you want to learn more about How to Bet on Week 4 of the NFL or head right to our favorite online sportsbook review page and find the right site for you!

Ryan Fowler

Ryan has covered sports on every media platform over the past 17+ years. The first seven years of his professional career were spent as a sports anchor and reporter at various local television stations, while he picked up side gigs as a freelance sports columnist and recurring radio guest before he decided to jump to the web. As content manager of sports simulation website WhatIfSports.com and senior editor of FOXSports.com's fantasy baseball and football coverage for the better part of this decade, Ryan embraces advanced metrics, trends, and outside-the-box angles to find his edge. You can follow him on Twitter @FreelanceFowler.

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