- What are our OROY Betting Favorites?
- How will first draft pick, quarterback Trevor Lawrence fare on-field?
Former Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in last week’s NFL Draft, which wasn’t a surprise. Neither is that Lawrence is the early betting favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars had never “earned” the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Jags crossed that off the list and selected Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who never lost a regular-season game in his three seasons with the Tigers, atop the 2021 draft on April 29. The Jags also have never had a player win the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, but Lawrence is the +300 favorite on the NFL futures odds to end that drought, too.
Many scouts believe Lawrence is the top QB prospect to enter the NFL since Andrew Luck was chosen first overall out of Stanford in the 2012 draft by the Indianapolis Colts. Luck, now retired, had a record-setting first season in Indy but lost out on Offensive Rookie of the Year honors to Washington QB Robert Griffin III, the second pick that year.
Quarterbacks have won this honor in back-to-back seasons, with Justin Herbert (No. 6 overall pick) the 2020 winner with the Los Angeles Chargers and Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall) taking home the award the previous year with the Arizona Cardinals.
Jaguars Will Start Lawrence From Day 1
While Jacksonville has a capable QB on the roster in Gardner Minshew, (although he probably will be traded at some point this offseason), there’s no question that Lawrence will start Week 1 for new coach Urban Meyer. Lawrence is given an over-under of 4150.5 passing yards this season, with the under a -140 favorite.
For a point of reference, Herbert threw for 4,336 yards last year but didn’t start until Week 2 and only then due to a fluke medical accident involving Tyrod Taylor. Had Herbert been the guy from Week 1, he would have broken Luck’s rookie record of 4,374 yards passing.
Lawrence’s former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne was one of the best running backs in ACC history and was somewhat surprisingly chosen by Jacksonville at No. 25 overall – surprising because the Jags have a good young running back in James Robinson, who was an OROY candidate in 2020 as an undrafted free agent. Meyer claims Etienne (+2300 for OROY) will be a third-down back, and he is a good receiver. The last running back to win this award was the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley in 2018.
Other OROY Betting Favorites
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields (+500), San Francisco QB Trey Lance (+700), Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts (+800), San Francisco QB Zach Wilson (+900) and Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase (+900) round out the favorites on the NFL futures odds for this prop.
Neither Fields nor Lance is expected to start Week 1, and in fact Lance may not play at all this year behind Jimmy Garoppolo. Pitts was chosen fourth by the Falcons, the highest ever draft pick on a tight end, but he’ll also surely play some wideout too. No tight end in the common draft era (since 1967) has won Offensive Rookie of the Year. The last receiver to do so was Odell Beckham (now with Cleveland) in 2014 with the New York Giants.