- Saints looked sloppy in loss to Raiders.
- Green Bay is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games.
- New Orleans is 14-5 straight up in their last 19 home games.
The Packers should probably lock up Aaron Jones for the long-term. The running back rushed for a career high 168 yards in Green Bay’s 42-21 blowout win over the Lions. The Pack improved to 2-0 straight up and against the spread with back-to-back OVERS cashing.
New Orleans looked sloppy in their 34-24 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Saints blew 10-point leads twice and let Derek Carr and the Raiders offense finish the game on a 27-7 scoring run. Drew Brees fell to 1-1 SU and ATS with back-to-back OVERS through the first two weeks.
|Week 3: Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints Game Info|
|Date: September 27, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET|
|TV Coverage: NBC|
|Opening Odds: Saints -6 | O/U 52|
|How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews|
New Orleans opened as 6-point home favorites before a significant dip to Saints -3.5 at most online sportsbook we track. The Packers moneyline opened at +210, but will likely shrink throughout the week. The point total opened at 52. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Saints last nine games against Green Bay.
The Packers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against the Saints.
The Saints are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 games.
Injury Update 9/25/20
#Saints WR Michael Thomas (high-ankle sprain) is once again declared out, as he’ll miss his second straight game. He hasn’t practiced since the injury. Meanwhile, #Packers WR Davante Adams (hamstring) is doubtful.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 25, 2020
Green Bay Packers News and Notes
During a week where several star players suffered torn ACL’s and significant injuries that will place them on the shelf for the better part of the next month, the Packers may have dodged a bullet with Davante Adams’ hamstring tweak. Head coach Matt LeFleur told the media Monday that his star wide receiver wanted to get back in the game, but with the Packers well ahead the Lions, the team elected to remain cautious.
Through two weeks, the Packers are averaging 42.5 points per game.
Green Bay’s defense remains exploitable. The Packers allowed the Vikings to rack up 34 points Week 1, while Minnesota could only muster 11 at the Colts this past Sunday. This past Sunday, it allowed the Lions to jump out to a 14-3 first quarter lead. They’re allowing 6.4 yards per play, sixth-most in the NFL. If Michael Thomas was healthy, I’d be more concerned, but with so much energy concentrated on Alvin Kamara, the Packers defense may be able to hone in and force Drew Brees to throw downfield. Brees is averaging just 6.9 yards per pass attempt, ranked 21st and currently tied with Tyrod Taylor.
New Orleans Saints News and Notes
Following the loss to the Raiders, a reporter asked Drew Brees to comment on growing criticism that the 41-year-old quarterback has lost some mojo.
“Well, my job is to execute the offense. … My job’s not to have the most air yards or throw the ball down the field most or anything like that,” Brees said.
While Brees was far from crisp, highlighted by a errant throw that was picked off right before halftime, that wasn’t the reason the Saints failed to win and cover in Las Vegas.
The two biggest stats and reasons behind New Orleans early-season hiccup were:
- The defense allowing the Raiders to convert 12-of-19 third and fourth downs
- The team being penalized 10 times for 129 yards
I don’t care if Michael Thomas was healthy, Saints aren’t covering -4 at Las Vegas with those metrics. Speaking of the All-Pro wide receiver, he remains out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain that will likely keep him out of Sunday’s contest.
The lone bright spot for the Saints was the continued excellence of Alvin Kamara, but even his production against the Raiders carries some downside. AK finished with 174 total yards and two touchdowns, but accounted for 41 percent of the Saints offense, thus leaving them one-dimensional save for some nice catches by Tre’Quan Smith.
With their current roster construction, the Packers are far from NFC playoff locks, but if the Saints’ efforts Sunday night mimic this past Monday’s, Green Bay will escape Bourbon Street with a win.
Betting Pick: UNDER 53 (Updated 9/25)
On the news that Davante Adams is DOUBTFUL for this matchup, I’d fade the point spread. Rodgers and Brees without their best targets may turn this into a Alvin Kamara vs. Aaron Jones showdown. I’ll lean on the UNDER as the pick.
Brees will continue to show flashes of brilliance throughout the 2020 season, but he needs Michael Thomas on the field when facing the NFL’s best. The emergence of Aaron Jones hands Aaron Rodgers the edge he needs by keeping front seven defenses honest and allowing for more play-action pass plays. It’s the perfect formula and how Green Bay squeaks out a win this Sunday night.