In the National Football League (NFL), a team needs every member of the 40-man roster to contribute if it hopes to win the Super Bowl.

But more often than not, the performance of one elite superstar can elevate everybody around him en route to football’s promised land. To wit, four of the last five Most Valuable Player (MVP) awards have gone to quarterbacks who led their teams to a Super Bowl appearance.

Tom Brady did the deed last season, capturing his third career MVP award while taking the New England Patriots to an unprecedented eighth Super Bowl appearance during his tenure. But like Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Peyton Manning in 2016, 2015, and 2013, respectively, Brady’s MVP status didn’t translate into a Lombardi Trophy.

In fact, the last NFL MVP winner to claim a Super Bowl title in the same year was Kurt Warner, who capped the “Greatest Show on Turf” season in 1999 with a championship.

Quarterbacks Lead NFL MVP Odds

That 18-year trend may change this year though, as online sportsbook Bovada has eight quarterbacks helming playoff-caliber squads topping its futures betting board for the 2018 NFL MVP award.

Interestingly enough, it’s Aaron Rodgers (+550) leading the way over Carson Wentz, despite the former’s Green Bay Packers finishing 7-9, while the latter’s Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl 52. And in another twist of fate, both Rodgers and Wentz suffered season-ending injuries in 2017, so both signal-callers will be returning with revenge on their agenda.

Rodgers already has two MVP trophies (2011 and 2014) on his mantle, so his status as the betting favorite is certainly understandable. And with a roster that doesn’t exactly match up with the loaded Eagles, if Rodgers is able to propel the Packers on a deep postseason run, he’ll certainly deserve the “most valuable” moniker.

Brady will defend his MVP award at (+800) to earn a fourth, making him the only other player priced under 10 to 1.

From there veteran Super Bowl champion Drew Brees and second-year phenom Deshaun Watson share the same (+1500) odds. It seems like an impossibility, but over his 17 years as one of the best passers on the planet, Brees has never won the MVP. He did finish as runner-up in the race on two occasions (2006 and 2009), however, and with the Saints fresh off of an 11-5 season and an NFC South title, he makes for the perfect dark horse pick.

As for Watson, he showed flashes of brilliance in Houston last year, before his stellar rookie season was cut short by injury. The Texans get Watson and three-time Defensive Player of the Year award winner J.J. Watt back in 2018, and if they reclaim their position atop the AFC South, a playoff run could put Watson in the MVP discussion.

Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP Award

Player Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP Award
Aaron Rodgers +550
Carson Wentz +700
Tom Brady +800
Drew Brees +1500
Deshaun Watson +1500
Jimmy Garoppolo +1600
Russell Wilson +2000
Cam Newton +2000
Todd Gurley +2000
Matt Ryan +2200
Kirk Cousins +2200
Philip Rivers +2800
Andrew Luck +2800
Ben Roethlisberger +3000
Ezekiel Elliott +3000
Patrick Mahomes +3300
Dak Prescott +3500
Jared Goff +4000
Derek Carr +4000
Matthew Stafford +4000
Le’Veon Bell +4000
Marcus Mariota +5000
David Johnson +5000
Antonio Brown +5000
Mitch Trubisky +5000
Jameis Winston +6000
Case Keenum +6000
Alex Smith +6000
Saquon Barkley +6500
Alvin Kamara +6600


Jonathan Zaun

One of Gamble Online's first dedicated reporters, Jonathan has spent well over a decade reporting on the gaming industry. While breaking legal news is his main area of expertise, Jonathan is an avid blackjack player & strategist who follows professional poker closely.

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