- Patrick Mahomes +450
- Lamar Jackson +800
- Dak Prescott +1200
- & more!
Already the youngest player to take home both a regular-season MVP and a Super Bowl MVP title, Patrick Mahomes is the odds favorite to clinch this season’s MVP award, a feat that would make him the first player in the NFL’s history to do so before his 25th birthday.
To little surprise, Mahomes sat atop the MVP odds boards when they first hit the market on February 5th, and six months after leading his Chiefs to a Super Bowl victory, he still holds a firm lead over his adversaries.
Historically speaking, quarterbacks have held a dominating advantage in the category, with the signal-callers taking home 16 of the last 20 MVP honors. The remaining four were awarded to running backs.
These trends are clearly evident when scanning over the current sportsbook offerings, as 19 of the top 20 names on the board are all quarterbacks, with only Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey cracking the list at +3300 (even with Ben Roethlisberger).
Patrick Mahomes +450
One could argue that Pat would have secured his second MVP title last season if not for his Week 7 knee injury. His first title came in 2018, where the 24-year old passed for over 5,000 yards and more than 50 touchdowns, joining Peyton Manning as the only two players to ever do so.
In his second full season as the team’s starter, Mahomes amassed 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns over 14 games, with only 5 interceptions. Patrick also totaled 218 yards on the ground and found the end zone on his feet twice.
While one could argue that Mahomes was robbed last season, history actually suggests that this could play in his favor this season. The league has only seen a player win the MVP in consecutive years twice, with the last being Peyton Manning in 2008-09. Brett Favre took home the honors in 1995 & 1996 and oddly enough, shared the 1997 title with Barry Sanders.
Lamar Jackson +800
Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson posted record-breaking rushing stats last season on his way to a unanimous MVP title, recording 1,206 yards on the ground while averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
When Jackson wasn’t busy changing the way NFL front offices define a “mobile quarterback,” Lamar turned to his air game. Jackson completed 66% of his attempts, good for 36 passing touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.
His impressive season didn’t carry over to the postseason, however, as the Ravens were bounced by the Titans in their opening game where Jackson tossed two picks and a single touchdown.
Jackson can be seen as the NFL’s version of Russell Westbrook or James Harden, in that you cannot ignore their stat line, but it’s painful to reward year after year.
Jackson was a standout last season and more than deserving of the crown, but aside from a likely regression this season, a similar performance will likely lack some of the luster it had last season.
Dak Prescott +1200
Prescott almost hit the 5,000-yard mark last season, totaling 4,902 in the air, 30 touchdowns, and only 11 interceptions. Despite putting up the best numbers of his career, the team went 8-8, a record that saw the franchise cut ties with head coach Jason Garrett.
Prescott utilized all of his weapons, pushing both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup over 1,100 in total reception yards each, and leaning on tight end Jason Witten and receiver Randall Cobb to help spread the defense.
Rookie CeeDee Lamb gives the QB another deep threat, and with Mike McCarthy taking over as head coach, expect Dak to take part in a more complete offensive package. McCarthy brings in a load of experience when it comes to developing promising quarterbacks, and with a strong running game keeping defenses on their toes, Prescott could be worth a look at the +1200 offering.
Super Bowl MVP Odds: Murray, Wilson & Brady All At +1200
Three quarterbacks sit tied with Dak Prescott, each in their own unique situation.
Kyler Murray now has DeAndre Hopkins as a target, and last season’s 5-10-1 record doesn’t truly reflect just how strong of a rookie campaign he managed.
Tom Brady dons a new jersey and gets support from one of the most promising receiving corps in the league. Supported by a pass-happy coach in Bruce Arians, Brady looks to revive his career in the Florida sunshine.
Seattle’s Russell Wilson is also getting respect from the oddsmakers, especially given that the Super Bowl champion and seven-time Pro-Bowler has never received a single MVP vote throughout his NFL career.
Reviewing recent history, two of the three previous MVP winners tossed for over 2,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Mahomes’ 5,097 yards and 50 touchdown season in 2018 and Brady’s 4,577 yards with 32 touchdown performance in 2017 both hit a benchmark that Wilson has been unable to reach in his career.
Lamar Jackson rounds out the three previous winners, and as mentioned earlier, his dual-threat attack brings something to the table that Wilson simply can’t match from a mobility standpoint.
NFL MVP Odds Via BetOnline
Odds via our friends at BetOnline:
|Josh Allen (QB)||+2000|