- Odds favor Trump over Biden at Bovada, BetOnline
- As of late August at Bovada, 60% of wagers picked Trump to win
- Trump leads Biden in key battleground state
Former vice-president and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s “talk less, smile more” campaign took this past Tuesday off from public events and it may cost him and the betting public backing the veep. Two weeks removed from the Democratic National Convention, Biden’s poll numbers continue to slip, while President Donald Trump’s are on the rise. With the dramatic shift in political momentum comes a second changing of the guard atop online sportsbooks’ oddsboards. For the better part of June, July and August, Biden possessed a comfortable odds lead over President Trump, with implied probabilities to win soaring above 60 percent. However, in the wake of the Republican National Convention, tailwinds started to propel Trump and closed the odds gap between himself and Biden. As the calendar flipped from August to September, the incumbent president found himself the favorite to win the 2020 election once again. President Trump’s odds lead over Biden is -115 to -105 at Bovada and -120 to EVEN at BetOnline.
|2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds||Online Sportsbook (9/2/20)||Online Sportsbook (9/2/20)|
2020 Election: Main Headlines
Joe Biden’s campaign announced their candidate will travel to Kenosha, Wisconsin this week. The city remains on edge following the police-involved shooting of Jacob Blake, deaths of two people protesting that shooting and civil unrest resulting in destruction of private property. While President Trump visited the town earlier this week to preach his “law and order” mantra and support of law enforcement to suppress the protesting, former vice-president Biden message will be one of healing and addressing the social injustices many believe the United States projects on minority citizens.
The death of George Floyd earlier this summer and stresses of the pandemic without common distractions (i.e. sports, bars, restaurants, group activities) have placed a microscope on these issues and highlighted the discrepancies between the haves and have nots. Whether Trump’s or Biden’s tone is the best course to quell the incitement will be decided by voters on November 3.
United States Post Office:
Remember the collective uproar regarding USPS delays, changes to processes and concern that they wouldn’t be able to handle the volume of mail-in voting cards? That was, what, like two weeks ago? Might as well been a headline back in late-2019. With the 24-hour news cycle churning out fresh meat every few hours, the USPS storyline may not be a popular talking point today, but remains something to monitor in the weeks leading up to election day. In fact, the New York Times recently published a piece about the Democrats “doomsday” scenario where mail-in votes have yet to be counted, but Trump declares victory anyways. That’ll be a betting nightmare, too.
It’s amazing, but the ongoing pandemic is just part of everyday life now. Since President Trump muted the Mike Pence-led coronavirus task force daily briefings, it’s hard to truly define the state of things. State governors and local officials do their best to inform the public on the latest updates and policies, but whereas some schools have embraced remote learning, some are open for in-class studies, while the Big Ten football conference season is TBD, Ohio’s high school football season kicked off last Friday and I could list dozens more examples where the shrug emoji defines the state of the United States pandemic. We don’t know and the president isn’t providing much guidance. It’s always been his hope that the virus would be like a miracle and disappear. While it’s still alive, kicking and killing people, it hasn’t seemed to hurt Trump’s re-election prospects.
2020 Election: Poll Positions
For those unfamiliar, Ohio is known as a presidential election battleground state where the winner has historically fared well. In other words, if you want to win the White House, win the Buckeye State. This is why the latest Morning Consult poll is worth noting. President Trump, who won Ohio by eight points back in 2016, currently enjoys a 50-45 percent advantage over Biden. This specific poll surveyed likely U.S. voters living in Ohio after both the Democratic and Republican conventions had concluded.
Meanwhile, the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports published its White House Report which indicated Biden leads Trump 49-45 among likely U.S. voters. A week earlier, during the Republican National Convention, Trump and Biden were nearly even 46-45.
And finally, over at FiveThirtyEight, their uber-presidential poll, which averages each poll’s quality (bias), sample size and recency, hands Biden a 7.5-point lead over Trump, 50.5 to 43.
In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.