US Open Betting: Women’s Final Odds For Emma Raducanu vs Leylah Fernandez Has Brit Favorite

Posted by Joe Ellison . September 10, 2021

The US Open odds have been sent into a tailspin on the eve of the women’s final after two unseeded players – Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez – stormed into Saturday’s showdown at the expense of higher-ranked players.

Great Britain’s Raducanu is the narrow favorite with sportsbooks to win the US Open at the age of just 18 and create history by becoming the first qualifier to ever capture a Grand Slam title.

However, Canadian Fernandez is only two months Raducanu’s senior and sensationally beat second seed Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 (7-3) 4-6 6-4 in her semi-final to make Saturday’s contest.

This match-up between two of the most promising young stars in the game has tennis betting fans scrambling to decide who to back, while bookmakers have had to shift their odds greatly over the past few hours.

These players have met in the WTA just once before back in 2018. That was during a Wimbledon juniors match, which Raducanu claimed 6-2 6-4. Since then both players have progressed, with Fernandez claiming the higher WTA ranking – and both are expected to rocket up the rankings once this tournament is over.

Raducanu vs Fernandez Stats

Stats	Emma Raducanu	Leylah Fernandez
Nationality	British	Canadian
Age	18 (November 13, 2002)	19 (September 6, 2002)
Plays	Right-handed	Left-handed
Record	69-22 (75.8%)	98-63 (60.9%)
Ranking	150	73
Previous best Slam performance	4th round, Wimbledon (2021)	3rd round, French Open (2020)

As the stats show, neither player has gone anywhere near this deep in a Grand Slam before. In fact, Wimbledon this summer was Raducanu’s first entry into the main draw. The Brit had to come through qualifying just to make it to Flushing Meadows, meaning this will be her 10th match of the tournament so far.

Fernandez has the higher ranking but the worse win percentage. That may be down to the fact she’s played more WTA tournaments than Raducanu and has therefore faced opponents of a higher quality. But nothing drives wins like form and it’s fair to say Raducanu, who has not dropped a set yet in New York, is in the form of her life.

Raducanu: “We go back a long way”

Raducanu will rise to 32nd in the rankings should she win on Saturday – a huge leap that would suddenly see her automatically qualifying for major tournaments. She is the first British woman to reach a Grand Slam final since Virginia Wade in 1977.

Yet Raducanu is more than aware of Fernandez’s strengths.

“We go back a long way,” said the Brit. “I remember speaking to her in the Under-12 Orange Bowl. We played each other at junior Wimbledon. We’ve both come so far since we last played each other. I’m excited to see what sort of match-up it will be.”

Having two teenagers in the final may surprise those outside the sport but Raducanu thinks there’s reason behind the trajectory of younger players reaching finals, such as Naomi Osaka and Iga Swiatek before her.

“I think honestly being young, there is an element of you do play completely free,” Raducanu said. “But I’m sure that when I’m older or have more experience the same will happen to me. I think the tables will turn. Some younger players will come through.

“Honestly, right now I’m just thinking of the game plan, how to execute. That’s what’s landed me in this situation. It hasn’t been focusing on who’s expected to win this match or that one. I think it’s just taking care of the day. That’s what I’m doing quite well at the moment.

“I don’t feel any pressure to win. Any pressure is self-inflicted. I have expectations of my level and how I want to perform but there’s no pressure in terms of results.”

Fernandez: “There’s no limit”

As for Fernandez, the determination and drive to conquer all before her was evident in her interview following the semi-final win over Sabalenka.

“A lot of people doubted me, my family and my dreams,” said Fernandez. “I remember one teacher, which was actually very funny – at the time it wasn’t, but now I’m laughing. She told me to stop playing tennis, you will never make it, and just focus on school.

“There’s no limit to what I can do. I’m just glad that right now everything’s going well.”

It’s hard to predict who the US crowd will favor more on Saturday: the Brit or the Canadian? Fernandez has certainly dazzled during her two weeks at Flushing Meadows and is turning heads with her gritty, punching baseline technique and her dominant serve.

“My mental toughness has come from years and years of hard work and blood. On-court and off-court sacrifices,” Fernandez said after her semi-final win. “I just I really wanted to be in the final. I fought for every point.”

On the crowd she said: “They have helped me and cheered for me and never gave up for me, they fought for me. Thanks to them I was able to win.”

US Open Women’s Final Odds

The US Open odds for both Raducanu and Fernandez were way out at the start of this tournament, with the pair both priced at wider than +1500 to claim the trophy. Yet those prices have crashed after every match they’ve played, and now there’s barely anything to split the two.

Borgata have Raducanu at -160 to win the US Open final, and Fernandez at +133. That supposedly gives the Brit a 61.5% chance of winning compared to her rival’s 43% chance.

Yet the in-play odds available at some sportsbooks could well flip as soon as the match starts. Fernandez is arguably the better server of their two, but Raducanu has a mean defense and jumps on returns. Any early breaks in the opening set will trigger big odds shifts.

Raducanu beat Fernandez in their only other professional meeting as juniors at Wimbledon three years ago. That was on grass in entirely different surroundings, so we can’t really extrapolate much from that when seeking answers to who will win the US Open.

A smarter indicator could be to follow the crowd. Fifty-three percent of all bets on the US Open women’s final have so far been placed on Raducanu. It’s a close call but the Brit should edge this contest.