- The Browns left the backdoor cover open Thursday night
- Get good value on Josh Allen's rush prop bet at BetOnline
- Cardinals tight end Dan Arnold is worthy of an anytime TD flier
If you’re a fan of the Cleveland Browns or wagered an uncomfortable amount of money on them to cover Week 1 at Baltimore, what a difference three days makes, eh? This isn’t the first time the franchise channeled its inner Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and it won’t be the last. If you caught my Bengals-Browns Week 2 betting preview, the final pick, Bengals +6, was nearly dead on, save for the swing and a miss on the UNDER:
The issues the Browns displayed on Sunday cannot, will not be rectified in three days … This could be an ugly game, but the only way I see Cleveland covering is if Chubb-Hunt combine for more than 200 rush yards and 3+ touchdowns.
Yes, Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense showcased all their weapons in Thursday night’s win, but defensive issues were not rectified as the secondary remains hobbled. Depending on your definition of “ugly”, this prediction could go one of two ways. Was it entertaining? Oh, yeah! However, both teams’ inability to score from inside the five, turnovers and just overall sloppy defense would be defined as ugly. And then there’s the two-head monster of Chubb and Hunt, who combined for, get this, 210 yards and four touchdowns. Hunt’s one-yard plunge handed Cleveland a 35-23 lead and short-lived ATS cover, but they left the backdoor open as Joe Burrow engineered a 16-play, 75-yard drive and score to cover the +6 and turn many NFL bettors into, well, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
And with that, here are my favorite Week 2 NFL player prop bets featured over at online sportsbook BetOnline:
Josh Allen 55+ Rush Yards (+141)
A recent scientific sports poll (a.k.a. Twitter) indicated that many NFL fans believe Josh Allen to be one of, it not thee, most underrated players in the league. The mobile quarterback of the Bills fell on his face during last year’s playoffs, but bounced back with a strong Week 1 performance in a win over the Jets. Buffalo’s franchise QB rushed 14 times for 57 yards in the 27-17 win and cover. Allen faces a rebuilding Dolphins team this week and a defense that just allowed Cam Newton to rush 15 times for 75 yards in his Patriots debut. Allen rushed seven times for 56 yards at Miami last year and think he’ll post a similar number this Sunday.
Ryan Tannehill 251+ Pass Yards (EVEN)
This prop does come with some risk when you consider that Derrick Henry is the reigning NFL rush king and Tannehill doesn’t have a lot of brand name receivers at his disposal. My reasoning for backing the 251+ pass yards for the veteran quarterback has more to do with the Jaguars defensive efforts against the Colts Week 1. In his debut, Philip Rivers passed for 363 yards, while the Colts running back by committee was held to 22 carries for 88 yards. Now, Henry could very easily crack 100 rushing yards against the Jags, but if the secondary is begging to be torched, Tannehill could just as easily light the match. He passed for 249 yards at Denver last Monday.
J.K. Dobbins 51+ Rush Yards (+131)
Like fantasy football, prop bet management is all about matchup value. In this case, the Ravens running backs should eat well against the Texans this week. Houston allowed Chiefs rookie tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire to rack up 138 yards on 25 carries. Now, while we know Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram are the top two run options within the Ravens offense, Dobbins did earn some burn last weekend. He finished with seven carries for 22 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps, the rookie earns more touches this week after seeing what CEH managed opening night. If the rushing yards total doesn’t interest you, I’d definitely encourage checking out Sunday morning prop bet odds on a Dobbins anytime touchdown or even first touchdown of the game.
David Johnson 29+ Receiving Yards (-119)
Short and sweet reasoning here: Deshaun Watson desperately misses DeAndre Hopkins. With Baltimore blitzing to test the endurance of the Texans retooled offensive line, one would think Johnson sneaks out to the flat and enjoy some dump off passes as he did in the loss to the Chiefs. He caught three passes for 32 yards in that game and think Bill O’Brien will get him even more involved in the passing game this week, especially if the Texans fall behind in the first half.
Danny Amendola 6+ Receptions (+145)
The Lions slot machine caught five passes for 81 yards in Detroit’s Week 1 loss to the Bears. It doesn’t appear that Kenny Golladay will be healthy enough to suit up against the Packers. If that’s the case, Amendola should see the same number of targets. The Packers secondary allowed the Vikings to rack up 19 receptions and 259 receiving yards. Aaron Rodgers was in a groove against the Vikings and one would expect an offensive track meet in Detroit this weekend. This benefits Amendola backers and the OVER six receptions.
Russell Gage 53+ Receiving Yards (-115)
Not yet a household name, the Falcons WR3, third wide receiver behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Gage caught nine passes on 12 targets for 114 yards. The third-year receiver out of LSU has a tasty matchup against a downgraded Cowboys defense that lost talent to free agency and, more recently, injury. With so much attention on Jones and Ridley, Gage can squeak out a 60-yard stat line at Dallas.
Dan Arnold Anytime Touchdown (Flier)
Though they aren’t listed as of yet, the Dan Arnold ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN odds should be quite high, perhaps +1000-or-better and is worth the flier against the Redskins. Eagles tight ends combined for 11 receptions, 119 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins last week. Arnold only saw to targets in the Cardinals win over the 49ers, but once Arizona reaches the red zone, expect Kyler Murray to look for his 6-foot-6 target.