- Most Favorable Rushing Matchups: vs. HOU, vs. CIN, vs. DET
- Most Favorable Passing Matchups: vs. SEA, vs. ATL, vs. MIN
- The Saints have struggled to cover the tight end position through three games
Leave it to the New York J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets! to win a turnover battle 3-0 and lose on its home turf. In his first start for the visiting Denver Broncos, Brett Rypien tossed three interceptions, but also for 242 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Melvin Gordon sealed the road win with a 43-yard touchdown run. After his team was penalized 11 times for 118 yards in lost field position, Jets head coach Adam Gase’s seat has never been hotter and, if you’ve been paying attention, that’s saying something. It’s hard to win when your lead back is a 37-year-old averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Frank Gore may be the G.O.A.T. in terms of longevity, but he’s not cashing any prop OVERS anytime soon.
And speaking of which, here are my favorite prop targets for Week 4 of the NFL season. Be sure to check out some quick pick props at online sportsbook BetOnline:
QB Dak Prescott vs. Browns
Through three games, the Browns’ secondary has allowed…
- Lamar Jackson to pass for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns
- Joe Burrow to pass for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns
- And Dwayne Haskins to pass for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns
In short, Zeke Elliott might go hungry Sunday because Dak Prescott is going to eat. He’s already averaging 396 pass yards per game and while I think he’ll fall short of 400 for the third time in four games, the Cowboys franchise quarterback will finish with 375+.
RB James Robinson vs. Bengals
The Jaguars undrafted free agent rookie running back is a sneaky play against the Bengals Sunday. Opposing running backs are averaging 5.0 yards per carry against Cincinnati through the first three games and Robinson is averaging 4.9. So, if he gets, say, 15 carries, he’ll cruise over 75 rush yards as it’s likely he’ll bust one long run to cash in on the OVER.
WR Randall Cobb vs. Vikings
Texans receiver Will Fuller is dealing with a hamstring injury, but is probable to play against the Vikings Sunday. However, if you’ve followed Fuller’s career, injuries have plagued him throughout a probable designation typically means he’ll try to give it a go, pull up lame early in the first quarter, try to get stretched out on the sidelines and remain doubtful to return the rest of the game.
It’s happened once, it’s happened twice, it’ll likely happen again.
Minnesota’s secondary has been torched for 293 pass yards per game to-date and with Fuller too risky of a prop bet play, keep an eye for value on slot receiver Randall Cobb. The veteran target actually leads the team with 177 receiving yards and three receptions of better than 20 yards. Trends indicate that slot receivers usually have lower receiving yards totals to hit the OVER on. Keep an eye on that when valuing whether or not to add Cobb to your bet slip.
WR Jarvis Landry vs Cowboys
For as bad as the Browns 22nd-ranked pass defense has looked this season, you should know the Cowboys rank 29th against the pass as they allow 277 air yards per game. The decision to target Jarvis Landry as a prop bet option isn’t focused so much on total yards, but number of targets and receptions by game’s end.
Dallas is favored by 4.5 to 5.5 points over the Browns. So, let’s assume America’s team has a healthy lead in the second half at some point. Baker Mayfield is going to have to go to the air to rally back the squad as he did back in Week 1 in an embarrassing loss to the Ravens. In that game, Landry caught five balls on six passes and that was after an abridged training camp and no preseason games to work out the kinks. With Odell Beckham playing through a back injury – and his chemistry with Mayfield always suspect – look for Landry to earn 9+ targets in this game and haul in six-or-more passes.
TE T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown vs. Saints
For those of you who play or have played fantasy football in the past, weekly NFL prop bets blur the line between NFL gambling and your favorite roto league settings.
Take for instance the Anytime Touchdown Prop Bet.
What I like to do is focus on NFL offenses that tend to involve their starting tight end in the passing game and then I use fantasy football points against that position to handicap the best option.
For example, the New Orleans Saints allow the most fantasy football points to opposing tight ends. Through three games, the position is averaging 9.7 receptions, 96.7 receiving yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game.
Their opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, just so happen to have a tight end leading their team in receptions and receiving yards. T.J. Hockenson has quickly become a reliable target for Matthew Stafford. He caught one touchdown with two red zone targets this season. Because he leads the Lions in receiving his Anytime TD prop odds might not be as cheap as some other tight ends, but I still like the play.