It’s been over five years since Nevada sportsbooks tallied up a losing month, but after Week 9 of the NFL season saw public sides cruise to an 11-0 record straight up and against the spread (ATS) last Sunday, November could be the end of the line. What will the NFL Week 10 odds have in store for them?
That improbable run last week for the public – which predictably backs the big point spread favorites when betting football – sent the books to an estimated loss of $10 million. And indeed, the public has performed above expectation for the last three weeks running, results which will undoubtedly regress to the mean at some point down the road.
Whether that regression occurs in Week 10 is anybody’s guess, but after taking an early look at the NFL Week 10 odds offered by online sportsbook Bovada, public bettors have a handful of heavy favorites to consider.
The Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) boast the best record in the league, but more importantly for bettors, they’re also 8-1 ATS.
That mark may be in jeopardy this Sunday, however, as the Chiefs host the Arizona Cardinals (2-6) as massive (-17) favorites. With the awe-inspiring atmosphere and home field advantage of Arrowhead Stadium on their side – not to mention the 29 touchdowns thrown by second-year QB sensation Pat Mahomes – Kansas City has been tagged with the fourth-highest spread in the last 10 years.
The Chiefs are still attracting a healthy 67 percent of wagers at the moment, but that’s a far cry from the 91 percent of wagers Kansas City attracted as (-8) road favorites over the Cleveland Browns (2-6-1). They covered that number comfortably, and an argument could be made that the Cardinals are worse than the Browns – giving the public plenty of reasons to lay more than two touchdowns in this one.
Another huge favorite this week will be the Los Angeles Chargers (6-2), winners of five straight as they head south to take on the Oakland Raiders (1-7).
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden returned to the Bay vowing to compete, but in just half a season he’s managed to dismantle a roster that went 12-4 just two seasons ago. Essentially playing a practice squad on Sundays, this Oakland team definitely deserves to be (+10.5) home dogs against the surging Chargers on the NFL Week 10 odds.
The Los Angeles Rams (8-1) just suffered their first defeat on the year in a 45-35 shootout at the hands of the New Orleans Saints (7-1), so they’ll be looking to get back on the winning track this week. And as luck would have it, L.A. gets a Seattle Seahawks (4-4) team limping its way into La-La Land.
Seattle looked abysmal in every phase of the game last week while losing 25-17 at home to the Chargers. A loss on Sunday would effectively end their NFC West title hopes, while putting them on the outside looking in for a playoff berth, so the Seahawks should be motivated.
But so should the Rams, and given the talent disparity between these teams on both sides of the ball, L.A.’s (-10) status certainly makes sense.
The last double-digit favorite on the NFL Week 10 odds doesn’t even have a winning record, but when the Green Bay Packers (3-4-1) host the Miami Dolphins as (-10) faves, they’ll definitely have the advantage at quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers has been gimpy all year, but he could play on one leg and outperform Dolphins backup Brock Osweiler – who is in for an injured Ryan Tannehill. The Pack fell short in their Sunday Night Football showdown in Foxboro against the New England Patriots (7-2), but they haven’t lost at Lambeau Field all year.
As for the injury ravaged Dolphins – who have lost wideouts Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson along with several offensive linemen – they’re a Jekyll and Hyde team to be sure. In the last two weeks alone, Miami was blown out 42-23 by the Houston Texans (6-2), before outlasting the New York Jets (3-6) in a 12-6 slopfest.