As the oft quoted saying about the NFL goes, professional football is a passer’s game.
Without a competent signal-caller under center, 10 offensive talents can be transformed into a train wreck. Conversely, an elite quarterback can put a team on his back and carry even the most lackluster players to the promised land.
Bill Belichick has seen entire rosters turn over several times during his tenure in New England, but as long as Tom Brady is breaking the huddle, the five-time Super Bowl champions are always a contender. In the last 10 years alone, championships in the NFL have been exclusively decided by top-tier QBs going on a torrid run come playoff time.
Drew Brees (2009 season), Aaron Rodgers (2010), Eli Manning (2011), Joe Flacco (2012), Russell Wilson (2013), and Peyton Manning (2015) join Brady (2014 and 2016) among the decade’s All-Pro QBs to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. And last season’s Super Bowl winning passer – backup Nick Foles of the Philadelphia Eagles – only put up a 77 for 106 (72.6 completion percentage) line in three playoff games, passing for 971 yards and six touchdowns to compile a glittering 115.7 QB rating.
Sufficed to say, that old saying above is spot on, which is why bettors love to look ahead at quarterback performance when splashing around on NFL futures.
Per the latest odds posted by online sportsbook Bovada (see the tables below for full odds), Tom Brady is a narrow (+450) favorite to lead the league in passing yards this year. That certainly makes sense, as the ageless Brady topped all passers with 4,577 yards through the air in 2017. Brady posted a per game average of 286 yards, which was also best in football, and his 581 attempts led the league as well.
Simply put, Belichick knows who the Patriots’ offensive engine is, so Brady will always be free to sling the ball around the yard.
Trailing the 41-year old legend is Drew Brees (+550), who has only led the league in passing yardage in seven of the last 13 seasons since becoming a New Orleans Saint. That includes three straight passing titles (2014-2016), and five over the last decade.
The only other QBs offering better than 10 to on a passing title are Philip Rivers (+700) and NFL MVP betting favorite Aaron Rodgers (+950) – two men coming off different seasons entirely. A healthy Rivers threw for 4,515 yards last year to come within a few plays of surpassing Brady, while an injured Rodgers put up 1,675 yards in just six full starts.
Rivers and the Chargers will have the same passing oriented attack going in Los Angeles, so he’s as good of a bet as anybody in football. And if Rodgers can stay upright in Green Bay, his 2017 stats would extrapolate out to 4,466 yards – which would’ve been good for third overall last year.
Interestingly enough, however, Rivers has only won the passing title once in his career (2010), while Rodgers has never held the honor.
As for wagering on which QB will top the league in touchdown tosses, the race is stacked up in similar fashion.
Rodgers is the favorite at (+450), which is understandable given he led the league with 40 scores through the air in his last complete season (2016). Brady – the 2015 passing touchdown leader with 36 – is next up at (+500), a fitting number for somebody who threw for a then record 50 TDs back in 2007.
QBs blessed with high-flying offensive attacks round out the 10 to 1 or better list, with Brees and Ben Roethlisberger priced at (+650), followed by Rivers at (+850), and Carson Wentz at (+900).
Odds to Throw for Most Passing Yards in 2018
|Quarterback (Team)||Odds as of 8/24|
|Tom Brady (NE)||+450|
|Drew Brees (NO)||+550|
|Philip Rivers (LAC)||+700|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+950|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)||+1000|
|Matthew Stafford (DET)||+1100|
|Matt Ryan (ATL)||+1200|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)||+1400|
|Pat Mahomes (KC)||+1500|
|Andrew Luck (IND)||+1500|
|Kirk Cousins (MIN)||+1600|
|Deshaun Watson (HOU)||+2500|
|Jared Goff (LAR)||+2800|
|Alex Smith (WAS)||+3500|
|Carson Wentz (PHI)||+4000|
Odds to Throw for Most Passing TDs in 2018
|Quarterback (Team)||Odds as of 8/24|
|Aaron Rodgers (GB)||+450|
|Tom Brady (NE)||+500|
|Drew Brees (NO)||+650|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)||+650|
|Philip Rivers (LAC)||+850|
|Carson Wentz (PHI)||+900|
|Deshaun Watson (HOU)||+1100|
|Matthew Stafford (DET)||+1200|
|Jared Goff (LAR)||+1400|
|Russell Wilson (SEA)||+1600|
|Andrew Luck (IND)||+2000|
|Kirk Cousins (MIN)||+2000|
|Matt Ryan (ATL)||+2500|
|Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)||+2500|
|Derek Carr (OAK)||+3500|