With the price of Bitcoin rising nearly 20 percent during the month of May and the next halving event expected to take place in July, sportsbooks have put out different prop bets involving the future of the digital currency. Since its inception more than seven years ago, Bitcoin has been the subject of many questions regarding its legitimacy as a commonly accepted form of currency and true value due to constant market volatility.
February has been Bitcoin’s best month in 2016 so far with a gain of 18.92 percent to $436.61 from $367.14, with May right behind at 18.35 percent, closing at $531.80. There has been some speculation that the price could rise past the $600 mark after halving, which has taken place just one other time back on November 28, 2012.
Halving is the process in which the rate of Bitcoin generation is cut in half every four years until the entire amount of 21 million are in circulation. Bitcoins are released every 10 minutes or so, and in 2012 the amount produced fell from a rate of 50 to 25 during the first halving event in 2012. The value increased about 10 percent 10 days after that occurred, fueling speculation that an even greater jump could take place this time.
Now for the props, two of which revolve around the future value of Bitcoins. First, how much will Bitcoin appreciate/depreciate following Halving Day? The favorite at online sportsbook Bovada is an increase of between 0 and 5 percent at +140 (bet $100 to win $140). The second choice is a decrease of between 0 and 5 percent at +165.
And the longest shots on the betting board involve the most dramatic increase and decrease. An increase of greater than 15 percent is worth +2000 while a decrease of greater than 15 percent is +3300.
The second prop at Bovada dealing with value is, where will the price of Bitcoin fall by the end of 2016? The favorite is between $500 and $800 at -150 (bet $150 to win $100), and the second choice is between $800 and $1,000 at +135. Oddsmakers obviously have some optimism with less than $300 the largest underdog at +2000 and greater than $1,000 sitting at +450, which is a lower price than between $300 and $500 (+550).
However, one of the most critical questions facing Bitcoin moving forward is, who will eventually adopt a national digital currency, making it a more mainstream payment option? China is listed as a strong favorite to make that happen first at -120 followed by the Philippines and Mexico, both at +300, with Russia fourth at +550.
There has been talk that Bitcoin’s strong presence in China could make adoption there a reality sooner than later. There are also rumors that Russia’s ban on Bitcoin could end in the near future, opening the floodgates for a huge growth in usage and added value.
For what it’s worth, Australia is +800 and the United States +1000 to adopt it first. Regardless, whatever happens after Halving Day will be a sign of where Bitcoin is headed.