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US Election Odds
Nov3
20
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2020 US Election Betting Odds

Posted by Ryan Fowler on
Last updated:

Regardless of what happens on November 3rd, the 2020 United States elections will go down in history as one of the most unique. It’s likely that voters will head to the polls, face masks in hand, to cast their ballots, while researchers and scientists continue to develop a coronavirus vaccine. It’ll be fascinating to see how all of these tangible factors impact election betting odds in the coming weeks.

Gamble Online’s United States election hub’s purpose is to educate you on all 2020 election betting from Trump vs. Biden odds to political prop bets to which party wins the Senate. We’ll cover:

  • What the election odds mean and how to read them
  • Where you can place a bet if your political prowess is second-to-none.
  • Visual representations of current and historical election odds data

Joe Biden VS Donald Trump

We’re in the home stretch of the 2020 U.S. election race and the Trump vs Biden odds look much different than they did in late-September. With less than three weeks to go, Joe Biden’s odds to win have reached all-time highs at most online sportsbooks including -200 at Bovada.  Ever since he tested positive for coronavirus, President Trump’s odds have dipped significantly. Whether or not Biden’s resume as a career politician can top a real estate mogul and reality television star – who promised to drain the swamp of Washington D.C. politics – will be decided in just a few weeks. Trump currently holds the record as the oldest sitting president at 74 years old, but would be, ahem, trumped by Biden if the former vice-president becomes the 46th person to inherit the Oval Office.

As the dust continues to settle on the 2020 election, it looks pretty pretty clear at this point that Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States, with the Democratic candidate set a record, receiving over 80 million votes nation-wide. Barring any unexpected Supreme Court decisions, the final electoral college vote count favors Biden 306-232

Joe Biden speaking
Joe Biden
306
232
Donald Trump
Donald Trumps head
80,063,589
Popular Votes
73,904,195
California (+5,099,904)
Largest State Victory by # of Votes
Tennessee (+710,224)
77
Age
74
$9,000,000
Net Worth (Forbes 2020)
$2,500,000,000
12,000,000
Twitter Followers
87,400,000

Bet on The Presidential Election

2020 US Presidential Odds

Here are the lastest odds for Trump vs Biden (updated November 3, via Bovada):

What a difference a pandemic makes. When it comes to the evolution of 2020 presidential election odds, look no further than what they were pre-coronavirus and what odds are today. If you flip back through the calendar to mid-to-late February, less than two weeks before the height of the pandemic, President Trump’s re-election odds were around -180 and nearly kissed -200 at one time.

Since then, Joe Biden’s presidential election odds have gone from nearly 20-to-1 to being the favorite to win for the better part of the past 5 months. However, betting partners like Bovada have reported that through late-August, as many as 60% of bets placed were on Trump. According to BetOnline, U.S. presidential election betting trends continue to fluctuate, but roughly 57​% of bets have been on Biden to win and 43% on Trump at this point in the campaign. This is nearly a 180-degree flip from late-August when betting action backed the incumbent. It’s also a big reason why Biden’s odds to win reached an all-time high of -225, while Trump’s sank to an all-time low of +180 at the online sportsbook.

Election Day Update

On the morning of November 3, Joe Biden was a -180 favorite. As more votes are cast throughout the day, oddsmakers have seen major fluctuation in the betting odds. Around 10AM EST, Biden’s odds dropped to -165 and Trumps improved to +145. In the afternoon, Biden’s odds saw massive improvement up to -200 as of 4:00pm est. However, as of 8:30 a.m. ET (November 4) Biden vs Trump odds have taken a swing back in Biden’s direction and Bovada now has Trump as a 79.59% favorite to win.

 

 

US Election Betting Odds Over Time

Our experts have put together a graph showing the ongoing fluctuation of presidential election odds in 2020:

As you can see in the graphic, President Trump was the favorite to win the 2020 election the last four months of 2019 as his odds improved during his impeachment Senate trial and after he was acquitted. Only after the president continued to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, which resulted in a national quarantine for much of the United States in March and April, did Biden’s odds to win start to improve and close the gap on President Trump.

As of the morning of November 4, President Trump’s odds to win the election were +275 at Bovada, or an implied probability to win of 26.67%. Meanwhile, Biden’s odds at -390 futures at Bovada carry an implied probability to win of 79.59%.

Trump vs Biden Odds: Recent Trends

Date Biden Odds Trump Odds
November 4, 8:30 a.m. ET -390 +275
November 4, Midnight +135 -180
Election Day Noon -190 +160
Election Day Morning -165 +135
November 2, 2020 -185 +155
October 30, 2020 -175 +145
October 28, 2020 -180 +150
October 26, 2020 -190 +145
October 23, 2020 -180 +135
October 21, 2020 -165 +125
October 19, 2020 -160 +125
October 16, 2020 -190 +155
October 14, 2020 -200 +170
October 7, 2020 -175 +145
October 2, 2020 -185 +160
September 30, 2020 -140 +120
September 28, 2020 -120 EVEN
September 23, 2020 -130 +110
September 16, 2020 -115 -105
September 2, 2020 -110 -110
August 31, 2020 -115 -105
August 24, 2020 -135 +115
August 17, 2020 -145 +125
July 31, 2020 -170 +145
June 27, 2020 -140 +120
June 3, 2020 +105 -115

If you’re new to political futures betting, you may be wondering what do the (-) and (+) prefix symbol mean and how do they relate to percentage odds.

The minus symbol indicates that betting option is the favorite to win whereas the plus symbol indicates the underdog of the moment.  The number associated with the symbol can also be calculated into an implied probability of occurring. For example, if Joe Biden’s odds to win the presidency are -130, that means he has an implied probability to win of 56.52 percent, whereas if his odds were +160, he’d be considered an underdog with an implied probability to win of just 38.46 percent.

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US Congress Seats & Betting Odds

As we mentioned earlier, some online sportsbook will offer odds tied to 2020 Senate elections. Currently, Republicans own the majority in the Senate, 53-45 with two independents, while the Democrats own the majority in the House, 232-198 with four vacancies and one Libertarian. It’s worth noting that the Dems flipped the House in their favor during the 2018 midterm elections. Most recent polling* suggest the party has a strong chance to retake the Senate, too. See the graphic above for historical data following the number of seats held by each party in the last four congressional elections.

*Take with grain of salt

Where to Gamble on the US Election

In most cases, those interested in betting on the 2020 U.S. election are most focused on who they believe will win the presidential election. However, it’s worth noting that most online sportsbooks offer more than just presidential election odds and include other future bets like:

  • Which candidate a certain state will elect
  • Margin of victory (%’s)
  • Popular vote totals
  • Which party will earn the most seats in the Senate

There are also event-based and time sensitive political prop bets and exotic specials that pop up on oddsboards from time to time. We’ll touch on that betting option more in detail below.

If you’re interested in betting on the 2020 election, it’s super easy to get started. Just head over to our online sportsbook review page and click your preferred vendor. We typically use Bovada and BetOnline when researching writing our political odds feature articles, but shop around – you might find better odds on the board at another outlet.

Presidential Election Odds vs. The Polls

If the 2016 U.S. election taught us anything, it was that the voting public should take political polling numbers with a grain of salt the size of Trump’s ego. Practically every national poll had declared Hillary Clinton the winner in a landslide. Despite the heavy lead in the polls, some online sportsbooks featured Donald Trump as better than a 2-to-1 underdog in the weeks leading up to election day, which – when compared to the polling data – was outlandish to think.

 

Odds

66.67%

Joe Biden Polls

37.04%

Donald Trump odds

Polls

52.5%

Joe Biden Polls

41.9%

Donald Trump odds

You see, polling data is accumulated by dozens of media outlets surveying small sample sizes of U.S. voters over a specific set of dates via telephone and online. Whereas 2020 election betting odds are set by online bookmakers and bettors alike, polling odds are often referenced by outlets like FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. The theory goes if the betting public has skin in the game, i.e. have wagered cash, current political odds provide a more accurate snapshot of the state of the election compared to polling data where it’s a “likely” voter’s opinion on any given day.

We recently highlighted the discrepancy between poll numbers and election odds in a featured article that explained that though President Trump trailed Biden in many polls, 60% of bets were placed on him to win the 2020 election.

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