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US Election Odds
Nov3
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2024 US Election Betting Odds

Posted by Ryan Fowler . Last updated:

Despite an on-going pandemic, contested 2020 election results, and a violent insurrection on the nation’s capitol, Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021. Though former president Donald Trump never conceded an election loss and decided not to attend President Biden’s inauguration, he hinted at another presidential campaign run in 2024 during a speech at the annual  Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC. Trump also shot down rumors he was planning on starting his own political party as “fake news” and plans to carry the Republican torch as the face of the party during President Biden’s first term.

Gamble Online’s United States election hub’s purpose is to keep you updated on 2024 presidential odds as they ebb and flow over the next four years. You can also look back at 2020’s election gambling odds and trends.

United States Presidential 2024 Election Odds

Although more than 80-million Americans look forward to Joe Biden’s first term in office, bookmakers at online sportsbook Bovada have their eyes set on the next US presidential election. As is quite customary in political betting circles, they’ve released odds as to who will be the favorites to earn the Democratic and Republican nomination and which potential candidate will win the 2024 election.

Here are the top five odds favorites to be named the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024:

2024 Democratic Presidential Candidate Odds (as of March 1, 2021)
Kamala Harris +200 (was +300 on Dec. 31)
Joe Biden +225 (was +250 on Dec. 31)
Elizabeth Warren +1200
Stacey Abrams +1200

 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Michelle Obama

+1400

Here are the top five odds favorites to be named the Republican presidential nominee in 2024:

2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Odds (as of March 1, 2021)
Donald Trump +250 (was +400 on Dec. 31)
Ron DeSantis +600
Nikki Haley +800 (was +500 on Dec. 31)
Mike Pence +1000 (was +400 on Dec. 31)
John Kasich/Ted Cruz/Tom Cotton +1400

Here are the top five favorites to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election:

Potential Presidential Nominee Odds to Win 2024 Election
(as of March 1, 2021)
Kamala Harris +450
Joe Biden +550
Donald Trump Sr. +800
Nikki Haley +1200
Mike Pence +1600
Joe Biden speaking
United States Presidential
Electoral Votes: 306
Electoral Votes: 232
Election Odds
Donald Trumps head
80,063,589
Popular Votes
73,904,195
California (+5,099,904)
Largest State Victory by # of Votes
Tennessee (+710,224)
77
Age
74
$9,000,000
Net Worth (Forbes 2020)
$2,500,000,000
12,000,000
Twitter Followers
87,400,000

Bet on The Presidential Election

2020 US Presidential Odds

Here are the lastest odds for Trump vs Biden (updated November 3, via Bovada):

What a difference a pandemic makes. When it comes to the evolution of 2020 presidential election odds, look no further than what they were pre-coronavirus and what odds are today. If you flip back through the calendar to mid-to-late February, less than two weeks before the height of the pandemic, President Trump’s re-election odds were around -180 and nearly kissed -200 at one time.

Since then, Joe Biden’s presidential election odds have gone from nearly 20-to-1 to being the favorite to win for the better part of the past 5 months. However, betting partners like Bovada have reported that through late-August, as many as 60% of bets placed were on Trump. According to BetOnline, U.S. presidential election betting trends continue to fluctuate, but roughly 57​% of bets have been on Biden to win and 43% on Trump at this point in the campaign. This is nearly a 180-degree flip from late-August when betting action backed the incumbent. It’s also a big reason why Biden’s odds to win reached an all-time high of -225, while Trump’s sank to an all-time low of +180 at the sportsbook.

Election Day Update

On the morning of November 3, Joe Biden was a -180 favorite. As more votes are cast throughout the day, oddsmakers have seen major fluctuation in the betting odds. Around 10AM EST, Biden’s odds dropped to -165 and Trumps improved to +145. In the afternoon, Biden’s odds saw massive improvement up to -200 as of 4:00pm est. However, as of 8:30 a.m. ET (November 4) Biden vs Trump odds have taken a swing back in Biden’s direction and Bovada now has Trump as a 79.59% favorite to win.

 

 

US Election Betting Odds Over Time

Our experts have put together a graph showing the ongoing fluctuation of presidential election odds in 2020:

As you can see in the graphic, President Trump was the favorite to win the 2020 election the last four months of 2019 as his odds improved during his impeachment Senate trial and after he was acquitted. Only after the president continued to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, which resulted in a national quarantine for much of the United States in March and April, did Biden’s odds to win start to improve and close the gap on President Trump.

As of the morning of November 4, President Trump’s odds to win the election were +275 at Bovada, or an implied probability to win of 26.67%. Meanwhile, Biden’s odds at -390 futures at Bovada carry an implied probability to win of 79.59%.

Trump vs Biden Election Day Odds

Date Biden Odds Trump Odds
November 4, 8:30 a.m. ET -390 +275
November 4, Midnight +135 -180
Election Day Noon -190 +160
Election Day Morning -165 +135
November 2, 2020 -185 +155

If you’re new to political futures betting, you may be wondering what do the (-) and (+) prefix symbol mean and how do they relate to percentage odds.

The minus symbol indicates that betting option is the favorite to win whereas the plus symbol indicates the underdog of the moment.  The number associated with the symbol can also be calculated into an implied probability of occurring. For example, if Joe Biden’s odds to win the presidency are -130, that means he has an implied probability to win of 56.52 percent, whereas if his odds were +160, he’d be considered an underdog with an implied probability to win of just 38.46 percent.

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US Congress Seats & Betting Odds

As we mentioned earlier, some sportsbooks will offer odds tied to 2020 Senate elections. Currently, Republicans own the majority in the Senate, 53-45 with two independents, while the Democrats own the majority in the House, 232-198 with four vacancies and one Libertarian. It’s worth noting that the Dems flipped the House in their favor during the 2018 midterm elections. Most recent polling* suggest the party has a strong chance to retake the Senate, too. See the graphic above for historical data following the number of seats held by each party in the last four congressional elections.

*Take with grain of salt

Where to Gamble on the US Election

In most cases, those interested in betting on the 2020 U.S. election are most focused on who they believe will win the presidential election. However, it’s worth noting that most sportsbooks offer more than just presidential election odds and include other future bets like:

  • Which candidate a certain state will elect
  • Margin of victory (%’s)
  • Popular vote totals
  • Which party will earn the most seats in the Senate

There are also event-based and time sensitive political prop bets and exotic specials that pop up on oddsboards from time to time. We’ll touch on that betting option more in detail below.

If you’re interested in betting on the 2020 election, it’s super easy to get started. Just head over to our sportsbook review page and click your preferred vendor. We typically use Bovada and BetOnline when researching writing our political odds feature articles, but shop around – you might find better odds on the board at another outlet.

Presidential Election Odds vs. The Polls

If the 2016 U.S. election taught us anything, it was that the voting public should take political polling numbers with a grain of salt the size of Trump’s ego. Practically every national poll had declared Hillary Clinton the winner in a landslide. Despite the heavy lead in the polls, some sportsbooks featured Donald Trump as better than a 2-to-1 underdog in the weeks leading up to election day, which – when compared to the polling data – was outlandish to think.

 

Odds

66.67%

Joe Biden Polls

37.04%

Donald Trump odds

Polls

52.5%

Joe Biden Polls

41.9%

Donald Trump odds

You see, polling data is accumulated by dozens of media outlets surveying small sample sizes of U.S. voters over a specific set of dates via telephone and online. Whereas 2020 election betting odds are set by online bookmakers and bettors alike, polling odds are often referenced by outlets like FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. The theory goes if the betting public has skin in the game, i.e. have wagered cash, current political odds provide a more accurate snapshot of the state of the election compared to polling data where it’s a “likely” voter’s opinion on any given day.

We recently highlighted the discrepancy between poll numbers and election odds in a featured article that explained that though President Trump trailed Biden in many polls, 60% of bets were placed on him to win the 2020 election.

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