Aaron Rodgers Potential Season-Ending Injury Shakes Up Super Bowl 52 Odds

What a difference a week makes.

On October 10 – two days after Aaron Rodgers tossed yet another last-minute touchdown to secure a comeback win over the Cowboys – the Green Bay Packers were 4-1 and online sportsbook Bovada had them as (+500) second-favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 52.

In fact, Green Bay was rated just below the defending champion New England Patriots (4-2), who offered odds of (+450), to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February.

Today, however, the Packers woke up to an entirely new reality.

After being driven hard into the turf by Anthony Barr of the Minnesota Vikings (4-2), Rodgers broke his right collarbone, dealing a disastrous blow to the Packers’ offense in an eventual 23-10 defeat. And while the result dropped the Packers into a tie with their old rival in the NFC North race, Rodgers’ likely season-ending injury was obviously the most important loss suffered on Sunday.

The gunslinger’s importance to the Packers’ postseason chances – or their shot of making the playoffs at all – was underscored today when the latest Bovada futures odds went public.

Formerly set at 5 to 1, Green Bay’s title odds have ballooned to (+1600).

Three NFC teams are now ahead of the Pack in that regard – the Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) at (+850), the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at (+1100), and the Atlanta Falcons (3-2) at (+1400).

Thrust into what had been one of the most secure starting roles in NFL history, backup Brett Hundley – the Packers’ fifth-round draft pick in 2015 – went 18 for 33 passing, with one touchdown to three interceptions. Hundley will obviously benefit from a full week of first-team practice reps, but given the caliber of Green Bay’s upcoming competition, his team may be under .500 within a months’ time.

The Packers host the New Orleans Saints (3-2) on Sunday, a team averaging 29.0 points per game after putting up 52 in last week’s win.

They’ll take a much-needed bye week after that, before hosting the Detroit Lions (3-3) in a crucial NFC North contest played under the Monday Night Football spotlight.

Next up is a trip to Soldier Field to face the surprisingly frisky Chicago Bears (2-4), and while the Packers have already dispatched their nemesis once this season, playing on the road without Rodgers is a different story altogether.

Green Bay fans looking for a shred of hope can at least look back to the 2013 season. That year, after a hot 5-2 start, Rodgers broke his left collarbone and the Packers limped to a 7-7-1 record entering Week 17.

Rodgers returned to play in the pivotal, NFC North deciding game against the Bears, marching his team down the field before throwing a 48-yard game-winning touchdown to send Green Bay to the playoffs.

Accordingly, the bookmakers at Bovada are taking a conservative approach to tabulating Green Bay’s title chances. They’re still ranked higher than the Cowboys (+2200), for example, but struggling teams like the Falcons and Seahawks have now surpassed them in the Super Bowl hunt.

Oddly enough, however, both Atlanta and Seattle saw their respective odds drop as well. Those downward slides are attributable to the Falcons blowing a 17-0 halftime lead against the Miami Dolphins (3-2), and Seattle sitting idle on its bye.

The biggest benefactor of Rodgers going down is, as expected, Minnesota – which currently leads the NFC North over Green Bay by virtue of its head-to-head tiebreaker.

Last week the Vikings held (+3300) odds of winning the Super Bowl, with no less than seven NFC teams – Green Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, Carolina, and Detroit – touted more highly.

Today, those odds have been cut to (+2000), and both Dallas and Carolina have fallen behind Minnesota.

In the ultimate team sport, the absence of a single player isn’t supposed to create such drastic swings – but then again, there’s only one Aaron Rodgers.

The table below compares every NFL team’s odds of winning Super Bowl 52 from last Tuesday to today:

Team SB Odds on 10/10 Team SB Odds on 10/16
New England Patriots +450 New England Patriots +450
Green Bay Packers +500 Pittsburgh Steelers +800
Kansas City Chiefs +650 Kansas City Chiefs +850
Seattle Seahawks +1000 Philadelphia Eagles +850
Philadelphia Eagles +1000 Seattle Seahawks +1100
Atlanta Falcons +1200 Atlanta Falcons +1400
Pittsburgh Steelers +1200 Green Bay Packers +1600
Dallas Cowboys +2000 Minnesota Vikings +2000
Denver Broncos +2000 Dallas Cowboys +2200
Carolina Panthers +2200 Denver Broncos +2500
Detroit Lions +3300 Carolina Panthers +2500
Minnesota Vikings +3300 L.A. Rams +2500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4000 Houston Texans +2800
Houston Texans +4000 Detroit Lions +3300
Tennessee Titans +5000 Washington Redskins +3300
Oakland Raiders +5000 New Orleans Saints +3300
L.A. Rams +5000 Tennessee Titans +4000
Buffalo Bills +6600 Oakland Raiders +4000
Washington Redskins +6600 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5000
New Orleans Saints +6600 Cincinnati Bengals +5000
Baltimore Ravens +6600 Arizona Cardinals +5000
Jacksonville Jaguars +7500 Buffalo Bills +6600
Cincinnati Bengals +7500 Baltimore Ravens +6600
Indianapolis Colts +10000 Jacksonville Jaguars +6600
New York Jets +15000 Miami Dolphins +7500
Arizona Cardinals +15000 New York Giants +7500
Miami Dolphins +15000 Indianapolis Colts +10000
L.A. Chargers +20000 L.A. Chargers +10000
New York Giants +30000 New York Jets +20000
Chicago Bears +100000 Chicago Bears +20000
San Francisco 49ers +300000 San Francisco 49ers +500000
Cleveland Browns +300000 Cleveland Browns +500000