2023 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Odds Reset

There was no truly dominant team in college basketball during the 2022-23 regular season, and that parity has carried over to an unpredictable NCAA Tournament as two No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Sweet 16 and one No. 2 was ousted in Round 1.

Big Ten regular-season and tournament champion Purdue, led by National Player of the Year Zach Edey, the top seed in the East was knocked off in the Round of 64 by little Fairleigh Dickinson, just the second No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1.

Pac-12 Tournament champion and No. 2 seed Arizona, a popular pick to win the South Region, was upset by No. 15 seed Princeton in Round 1 as the Wildcats became the first-ever school to lose twice as a No. 15 against a No. 2 (also in 1993).

There has been no team to repeat as NCAA Tournament champion since Florida in 2007, and that trend will continue with defending champ and West No. 1 seed Kansas losing in the Round of 32 to No. 8 Arkansas.

With two No. 1 seeds already out, we could see only the third Big Dance since 1985 with zero top seeds reaching the Final Four. Let’s break down some updated NCAA futures via Bovada, one of the top online sportsbooks.

The SEC and Big East each have three schools remaining, the most of any league, and that an SEC team wins the Dance is the +190 favorite, according to college basketball odds, as No. 1 overall seed Alabama is still standing as is No. 4 Tennessee in the East and No. 8 Arkansas of the West. A Big East national champion is +400, and that league still has Midwest No. 3 Xavier, West No. 4 UConn and South No. 6 Creighton, which should beat No. 15 Princeton in the Sweet 16 but also stuck in the same region as No. 1 overall seed Alabama.

An AAC team cutting down the nets on April 3 in Houston is +350 and the only AAC school still around is Midwest No. 1 Houston.  After losing Kansas, the Big 12 is now +700 on this prop with only No. 3 Kansas State and No. 2 Texas standing. The Big Ten (+3000) hasn’t won a title since 2000 and with just No. 7 Michigan State left probably isn’t ending that drought. The Pac-12 (+900) hasn’t won it all since 1997 and all its hopes rest on No. 2 UCLA.

That a No. 1 seed wins it all for a sixth straight tournament is the +130 favorite. Every seed 1-8 has won a title since the field expanded in 1985 except a No. 5, which is +1600 to end that. There are two No. 5s left: San Diego State in the South and Miami in the Midwest.

The Midwest is the favored region at +220 to win the championship, and that’s largely chalk with No. 1 Houston, No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Xavier and No. 5 Miami. The long-shot region at sports betting sites is the East at +550, which has No. 3 Kansas State, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 7 Michigan State and No. 9 FAU.