2023 NFL Draft Odds: Bears Hold Top Overall Pick, But Are Underdogs To Use It

The NFL Scouting Combine is ongoing and while nothing major will happen there, with several top players opting not to work out, teams will set the groundwork for possible trades at/ahead of the 2023 draft with all the general managers in Indianapolis and talking shop.

By virtue of their 3-14 record — and the Houston Texans winning in the final seconds of their regular-season finale — the Chicago Bears are set to pick first overall for the first time since way back in 1947, when they took Oklahoma A&M halfback Bob Fenimore. There are two things we can guarantee regarding the No. 1 overall pick this year, which will be chosen the night of April 27 in Kansas City: It will not be a running back or a player from Oklahoma A&M – that’s now Oklahoma State.

In fact, oddsmakers don’t expect the Bears to pick first at all. The last time a team traded the top overall pick was in 2016 when the Los Angeles Rams moved way up to select quarterback Jared Goff. Here are the odds from top online sportsbooks for which team picks first this year.

Chicago is a +450 fourth favorite to pick first at sports betting sites and it is unlikely the Bears do so as they don’t need a quarterback with Justin Fields in tow – and there are several QB-needy teams ready to trade up.

There has been an interesting wrinkle this week in terms of if the Bears do stay put. The top-rated defensive player on the board is Georgia tackle Jalen Carter, and he’s exactly what a porous Chicago defense needs. However, Carter was charged with reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a teammate and a recruiting staff member last month. Those are misdemeanors in Georgia, but might be a red flag to some teams.

Houston is the +240 favorite to pick first, and they absolutely need a quarterback. It wouldn’t cost the Texans too much to move up from No. 2 to No. 1 and have their choice between Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. If the Bears move down to No. 2, they are guaranteed their choice of defensive player.

Indianapolis (+275) also is in the QB market and currently picks fourth. The Colts may want to get in front of Houston for their pick of signal-callers. Will the Carter news affect Chicago’s decision to move down to four?

Las Vegas (+400) surely isn’t trading up if it can trade for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers – and there should be some clarity on Rodgers’ 2023 team very soon. The Raiders currently hold the No. 7 pick.

Atlanta (+600), Carolina (+600), the New York Jets (+800), Washington (+1000) and Tampa Bay (+1200) also are all in the QB market. The Commanders and Bucs surely pick too far back in Round 1 to entice Chicago. The Jets want Rodgers and likely sign Derek Carr if they don’t get him.