Gambling is more than just quick gains. Sometimes it’s about playing the long game. Collectibles is a regular feature that showcases the “gamble” around sought after digital & physical collections.
Although the trading card hobby is well of its ROI-highs of mid-February and a month has passed since one high-end collector backed up the Brink’s truck to drop an all-time record $5.2-million on a rare LeBron James rookie card, Goldin Auctions seven-figure collectibles sales continue to snatch headlines. The top five trading cards sold at their 2021 Spring Elite Auction were:
- 1909-1911 T206 Honus Wagner graded PSA 2 sold for card-record $3.75-million
- 1997-98 Upper Deck Michael Jordan Game-Used All-Star Jersey / Auto serial-numbered to 23 sold for $2.1-million – most for any Jordan item in history (headline pic above)
- 2003-04 Upper Deck Exquisite LeBron James Rookie Patch Auto serial-numbered to 99 sold for $934,800.
- 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle Rookie Card graded PSA 8 sold for $861k
- 2014-15 Panini Immaculate Kobe Bryant 1-of-1 Game-Worn NBA Logoman Jersey Patch Autograph sold for $615,000.
Coming off his Pro Basketball Hall of Fame posthumous induction, a Kobe game-worn jersey from his rookie season was the second-highest item sold at the auction at $3.69-million.
So, as this latest Goldin Auction illustrates, the most coveted and collectible types of trading cards on the market are modern-era NBA and vintage MLB. While there are certainly exceptions to this rule and six and seven-figure outliers found in other sports and gaming niches, those chirping “shut up and dribble” might want to yield the floor to those letting the NBA card market speak for itself.
Why are NBA Trading Cards so Valuable?
As of late-May 2021, LeBron James, future Hall of Famer, and Luka Doncic, rising NBA superstar, boast the distinction of the two most valuable cards ever sold. Major League Baseball icons Babe Ruth, and Mickey Mantle in addition to NFL greats like Jim Brown and Tom Brady fall short of NBA’s cardboard capital returns. Here are a few reasons why it’s likely NBA trading cards remain the clubhouse leader in value for years to come.
Small Roster Sizes
Before the pandemic, the 30 NBA teams were only required to carry 13 players on a roster. That’s only 390 NBA pros competing at the highest level. Now, compare that with MLB’s 25-man rosters and hundreds of minor league players buried in farm systems or NFL’s 53-man rosters. Plus, for decades, the NBA has done an incredible job marketing their star players. The NFL does a great job marketing the entire league, i.e. “protect the shield,” while Major League Baseball often receives failing grades in their attempts to elevate the status of studs like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge.
Global Reach
Although the NFL is trying to expand its territory with annual games in the United Kingdom and Mexico, the NBA’s global reach remains the strongest. From Jordan to Kobe to LeBron, heck even Dennis Rodman’s relationship with a North Korean dictator due to his accomplishments from the 1990’s, are brand names that carry a lot of weight in Asia, Australia, Africa, and across Europe. We’re talking billions of NBA fans worldwide and that indirectly equates to millions of NBA collectors looking to spend serious dough on their favorite players.
Euro Zone
Speaking of Europe, foreign players like Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, and more recently, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic also played a pivotal role in NBA fandom expansion. Take a second and look up on eBay how much Dirk’s and Giannis’ rookie cards are selling for and keep in mind, they are off the 2021 February highs.
Early Introduction
Thanks to the league’s one-and-done rule, which requires NBA rookies to be at least 19 years old and one year removed from their high school graduation, collectors are introduced to next-generation stars at a young age. Zion Williamson is a great example. The phenom was on NBA collectors’ radars when the kid was in high school and he only solidified his collectible appeal by dominating college basketball during his one-and-done season at Duke. Once his NBA cards first hit the market, the demand for his rarest pieces was quite frothy.
Though some of his rookie cards have sold for more at private auction, a mid-April eBay sale reflects Williamson’s market appeal despite missing the playoffs this year. A rookie patch auto of Zion sold for more than $165,000 dollars.
What is MLB Trading Card “Prospecting”?
When I got back into collecting in 2013, my primary focus was rekindling my love of baseball cards. I soon realized the game (and hobby) had changed dramatically. While veteran MLB All-Stars were still celebrated and their autographs coveted, the real money was found in a niche of baseball card collecting called prospecting. Rather than hoard the known commodities like Miguel Cabrera and, at the time, Evan Longoria, collectors gravitated towards the unknown and minor league prospects that might be years away from reaching the big leagues. At the time, Byron Buxton was all the rage. His 2013 Bowman Chrome prospect autograph was selling for hundreds of dollars ungraded.
However, when you consider the size of MLB farm systems and hundreds of potential prospects flaming out in the minors before they sniff the show, plenty of financial risk exists in MLB prospecting circles. Buxton is a great example because the Minnesota Twins centerfielder was once branded “the next Mike Trout,” but injuries and weak stats his first five years in the majors muted collectors initial cardboard investment back in 2013. Buxton’s card values rebounded somewhat this past April, but the injury bug bit him again and thus his market softened once more.
And yet, the prospecting investment practice remains commonplace in the hobby still today. A rare Wander Franco prospect auto, serial-numbered to five, just sold for nearly $200,000 at Goldin Auction. The Tampa Bay Ray’s future shortstop is only 20 years old and hasn’t played one big league game yet.
Final Sale Price: $198,030
An all-time record for any Wander Franco card. pic.twitter.com/LyrfHhBiQU
— Goldin Auctions (@GoldinAuctions) May 23, 2021
Yankees 18-year-old prospect Jasson Dominguez first prospect autos are selling for five-figures.
And high-end sales like this go on and on as, too, does the proverbial warning label: buyer beware.
Can I Make Money Investing in NFL Trading Cards?
Across all positions, the average NFL player’s career lasts 2.5 years. This statistic alone doesn’t encourage novice card collectors to run to their nearest hobby shop and spend a couple hundred bucks on NFL products, right? When you combine the shelf life of an NFL player with the scarcity of truly gifted skill position players, it’s a challenge to assume NFL trading card collection values will rise as time passes.
I’ll share a personal anecdote to illustrate my point. Back in 2014, I was fortunate enough to pull a rare Adrian Peterson autographed trading card with pieces of game-worn jersey embedded in the piece. If you want to get technical, and apparently I do, I pulled a redemption card that needed to be mailed in to acquire the card, but it was a rare AP piece of memorabilia regardless. In the moment, Peterson was still basking in his return from a serious ACL injury and subsequent 2,000-yard campaign with the Vikings. He was, without question, one of the top five most popular NFL players in the league and considered an elite player at his position. When I went to sell the card, I soon realized the NFL market was ice cold. That Peterson only returned $100-$125 on the secondary market.
Now, had I pulled an NBA player’s card exactly like Peterson’s and that NBA player shared an equal level of popularity and skill level, it would have been worth at least 10x that amount. Easily.
Soon thereafter, I stopped collecting NFL and a little while after that ceased my MLB collecting to focus on NBA trading cards full-time.
How Much is a Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card Worth?
Funny you should ask! It just so happens that in May 2021, a 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky rookie card graded PSA 10 sold for a record $3.75-million in Heritage Auctions brokered the private sale. Aside from the price tag, what’s hard to fathom is that the same version of Gretzky’s RC sold for $1.29-million just this past December 2020, less than six months ago. Its value has appreciated 3889.36% over the past decade. Only two PSA 10 graded Gretzky O-Pee-Chee rookies currently exist in the world.
O-Pee-Chee and its American business partner, Topps, began producing two annual NHL hockey sets in the late-1960s. As of late, the O-Pee-Chee version of the Gretzky rookie has sold for more money.
The NHL and Upper Deck currently have an exclusive licensing agreement to produce modern-day hockey cards.
Are Pokemon Trading Cards Worth a lot of Money?
I’ll be the first to admit that gaming trading cards, like Pokemon and Magic the Gathering, are not in my wheelhouse. I didn’t collect them growing up nor do I collect or invest in them now. However, you better believe those in their late-30’s and early-40’s starting digging into their childhood collections once this 1999 Pokemon Holographic Charizard 1st edition graded PSA 10 by PSA sold for $220,000+ at auction last October.
Just like hardcover books and other pieces of rare literature, first edition trading cards can deliver a premium to the seller. When you think just how many kids were actively playing with their Pokemon cards versus storing them in a vault somewhere, to find one in pristine, PSA 10 out of 10 condition, only adds to the rarity of the trading card and, thus, boosted its value north of $220,000.
Two other things to consider when valuing gaming trading cards are the global reach of the game and could the cards be viewed as pieces of illustrated art in addition to the strength of the card when used during a gaming session.
What’s not up for debate is that the reseller demand for modern-day Pokeman cards remains hot, even at the retail level. Check out this mad dash and intense bumper carts exchange at a local Walmart the moment they opened the doors and restocked the Pokemon shelves.
Got this video from Instagram from @tcg_grassi and wanted to bring it to Twitter. This shit is unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/ELYSDR2Cc5
— Big B Cards (@bigbcards30) May 21, 2021
What are Some Other Valuable Trading Cards?
eBay
Soccer is starting to gain plenty of momentum in the trading card space. As you can imagine, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar set the standard, but – like in baseball – prospecting futbol’s next generation allows for Kylian MbappĂ© and Erling Haaland to rack up near six-figure sales.
It’s well documented and should come as no surprise that Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids graded favorably can fetch four-to-five figures at auction. The illustrated oddball cards depict outrageous images and pardon-the-pun plays on common names such as (zombie) Dead Ted and the iconic Blasted Billy whose PSA 10 Series 1 card sold for nearly $15,000 this past March.
More recently, Sports Illustrated for Kids “rookie cards” have caught the wave of high-priced rare cards in mint condition. For those unfamiliar, Sports Illustrated began publishing a kids’ version of their uber-popular magazine in the late 1980’s. Inside each issue with an insert of nine trading cards of various sports from MLB and NBA to tennis and Olympic sports.
One of the primary reasons these are selling so well is that to find one graded a PSA 9 or 10 out of 10 is extremely difficult due to the fact that the nine trading cards were perforated and removing them from the magazine without damaging the condition of the card is in itself a skill.
That’s how a 1996 SI for Kids Tiger Woods “rookie” card PSA 10 can sell for more than $40,000.
eBay
And yet, in my opinion, the most comical oddball card in the clubhouse to fetch five figures has to be a 1994 Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s Bumble Bee Seaford sponsored trading card when the wrestling superstar and actor was a member of the Miami Hurricanes football team. Perforated, like SI for Kids, this trading card managed to grade a PSA 10, and with a low population report (see: scarce), it sold for nearly $30,000. These soared in price after Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson dropped $45,000 on one at auction.
Trading Card Bubble vs Boom
As some Bitcoin investors have realized in the past few weeks, timing is everything. This also applies to striking when the trading card market is cool and embracing the ol’ “buy low, sell high” capitalism mantra. The Honus Wagner tobacco cards and rare Michael Jordans of the world are thriving in this market and raking in record profits. The trading card boom isn’t over, but it has definitely pumped the brakes in recent weeks and months.
Case in point, a 2003-04 Topps Chrome LeBron James Rookie Card graded PSA 10 is selling for roughly $23,000. That same card cleared $40,000 just a few months ago. Just like the stock market goes up and down, so too will trading card values. The best news is that collectors of the 1980s and 1990s have returned to the hobby as middle-aged adults with a little more disposable income than before. Their mere presence combined with trading card companies’ high-quality and effort to make modern cards unique (see: art) and scarce (see: rarity sells for more) is a sign trading card values will remain steady in the immediate future.
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