NFL Week 16 Christmas Individual Statistical Leader Props

From a sports betting perspective, Christmas Day is usually associated with the NBA as it’s the biggest regular-season day of the season for the Association, and this year’s five-game slate is highlighted by a possible Eastern Conference Finals preview between the Bucks and Celtics in Boston.

However, because Christmas falls on a Sunday this year, the NBA is going to be completely overshadowed by the three-game NFL slate: Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (easily the best matchup), Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals.

It’s the first Christmas tripleheader in league history and includes four playoff teams from the 2021 season, (Packers, Rams, Bucs and Cardinals) and each of the past two Super Bowl champions (Tampa Bay and LA, although the Rams already have been eliminated from postseason contention this year).

Let’s break down some props on individual statistical leaders on Christmas.

Brady Facing Shaky Defense

The quarterback favored to throw for the most yards on the holiday is the Bucs’ Tom Brady even though the GOAT is having a massively disappointing season for the 6-8 Bucs – who still lead the NFC South by a game. While Brady’s QB rating is a relatively mediocre 89.1, he has thrown for 3,897 yards in 14 games, an average 278.4 per game. Brady has to throw a lot because Tampa Bay often struggles to run. He goes against an Arizona defense allowing 237.6 yards through the air per game, 10^th-worst in the league.

Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is +250 and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers +400. Rodgers, the four-time MVP, still hasn’t come close to a 300-yard game this year. Tua has thrown for at least 285 yards in his past two at home.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y., Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

For most receiving yards, Miami big-play machine Tyreek Hill is the +250 favorite and arguably the fastest player in the NFL should be. Hill is in the running for NFL Offensive Player of the Year with 1,529 receiving yards, second in the league. He has six 100-yards game this season and had at least 143 in each of those. Arizona’s DeAndre Hopkins is a distant +550 second favorite and the Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle at +600.

On the most rushing yards prop, Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and Arizona’s James Conner are both +300 favorites. Two concerns about Jones: Miami’s defense has been vastly better at home this season, and Jones shares carries with AJ Dillon. Conner has just one 100-yard game on the year, and the Bucs might stack the box to stop the run against the Cardinals considering they are giving Trace McSorley his first NFL start at quarterback.