NFL Wild Card Props: With No Tua, Dolphins Favored As Lowest-Scoring Team

The NFL’s Wild Card round begins this weekend with all but the two overall top seeds in each conference, the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC, in action.

There are a whopping seven teams in this postseason that missed last year: Baltimore, Jacksonville, the LA Chargers and Miami in the AFC, and Minnesota, the New York Giants and Seattle in the NFC. That makes 33 consecutive seasons where at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs in every season that were not in the year before.

Two teams won division titles – the Jaguars (AFC South) and Vikings (NFC North) – after missing the playoffs last season. At least one club has won its division the season after finishing in or tied for last place in 18 of the past 20 years. Jacksonville not only accomplished that, but also became a rare team to pick first overall in the draft and play postseason football the same season.

Let’s break down some team scoring NFL betting props for the six Wild Card games.

Long-Shot Rookie QB Duo

FILE – Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. Tagovailoa has officially been ruled out for Sunday’s game at New England after suffering a concussion in Miami’s Christmas Day loss to Green Bay.
(AP Photo/Jim Rassol, File)

Rather amazingly, it appears two clubs could be starting seventh-round rookies at quarterback – most seventh-round picks don’t even make a roster.

The 49ers will have one as they enter Sunday’s home game vs. the Seahawks on an NFL-high 10-game winning streak despite losing their top two QBs to season-ending injuries earlier. Brock Purdy, the last overall pick in the 2022 draft (Mr. Irrelevant), has been sensational since taking over with two TD passes in each game.

The Niners are +500 second favorites at sports betting sites to be the highest-scoring Wild Card team behind Buffalo (+400). San Francisco scored 27 points in a home win over Seattle in Week 2 (Trey Lance and then Jimmy Garoppolo at QB) and 21 in a Week 15 game in the Pacific Northwest. That was Purdy’s first-ever road start. Seattle totaled only 20 points in the two games and they are +350 as the lowest-scoring team.

No club has a bigger question mark at QB, though, than the Dolphins as they visit Buffalo. Miami starter Tua Tagovailoa will miss a third straight game with a concussion. Backup Teddy Bridgewater missed Week 18 with a dislocated finger, so rookie Skylar Thompson started. The Dolphins managed only 11 points, but it was enough to beat the Jets and sneak into the playoffs.

It likely will be Thompson on Sunday against the Bills, so Miami to no surprise is the +200 favorite as the lowest-scoring team. When Tua started this season, and he did both regular-season games against Buffalo, the Fins averaged 25.5 points. In the four he didn’t, they only averaged 16.3 points.

Baltimore at Cincinnati is the +220 leader as the lowest-scoring game as the Ravens will be without QB and former league MVP Lamar Jackson yet again. He hasn’t played or even practiced since early December due to a knee injury. Dolphins-Bills is a +400 second favorite for lowest-scoring game.

Giants-Vikings is the +300 leader as the highest scoring. They combined for 51 points in Week 16 in Minneapolis, with the Vikings prevailing on a walk-off 61-yard field goal as time expired.