NFL Odds: Geno Smith Favored as Seattle’s 2023 Starting Quarterback

The unexpected rise of Geno Smith as the Seattle Seahawks’ starting quarterback caught everyone off guard and is considered one of the many feel-good stories from the 2022-23 NFL season. With the trade of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for draft picks and the acquisition of a young, potential-filled quarterback in Drew Lock, it was expected that either Lock would beat out Smith in training camp or that the Seahawks would bring in someone like Baker Mayfield via trade. But Smith’s journey in the NFL took a surprising turn when he landed the top spot in Seattle.

Despite expectations that Lock or someone like Baker Mayfield would win the starting role for the Seattle Seahawks, Smith exceeded all expectations with a career season, breaking the franchise record for passing yards (4,282) and boasting a league-leading 69.8% completion rate. This stunning performance earned Smith consideration for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, just in time for free agency as well. Seattle was also projected to be one of the NFC’s weakest teams but far exceeded expectations by reaching the postseason as a Wild Card club.

Smith’s impressive performance in the Wild Card game has sparked a frenzy about his future in Seattle. As a 32-year-old quarterback with a career season under his belt, it’s clear that Smith’s earnings will soar far beyond the $3.5 million he made in the 2022 season. The Pacific Northwest is now eagerly anticipating the next move for this NFL journeyman.

Let’s break down two Smith props for next season via online sportsbooks.

Top QB Could Fall to No. 5

The Seahawks have said they would like to re-sign Smith and have held preliminary talks with his camp, but Smith would likely now cost at least $25 million per season. Keep in mind that he hasn’t had a multi-year contract in the NFL since the rookie deal that he signed with the New York Jets in 2013.

If you’re a Seahawks fan, the fact that the former West Virginia star is on record saying he wants to stay is fantastic news, but how much of a ceiling is there with Smith? Could that money be better spent elsewhere?

The current NFL betting odds for Geno Smith to be the Week 1 starter for Seattle is -450 and +275 for the team to move on to somebody else. What the Seahawks do with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft will also play a role in Smith’s future – that pick is from Denver via the Wilson trade, which Seattle clearly has already won.

There’s an NFL betting prop on what position Seattle drafts at No. 5 (presumably void if the team trades up or back) with the quarterback position priced at +145 and any other position at – 190. Ahead of Seattle are the Chicago Bears at No. 1, Houston Texans at No. 2, Arizona Cardinals at No. 3, and Indianapolis Colts at No. 4.

Chicago’s Justin Fields just became the third quarterback in NFL history to record 1,000 rushing yards in a single season, and Arizona’s Kyler Murray is widely regarded as one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league, so it is presumed that they would look at other positions if they stay in their respective draft spots. Houston and Indianapolis, on the other hand, most definitely need new QBs.

Most NFL scouts agree there is one tier of elite QBs in this year’s draft: Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, and Kentucky’s Will Levis. In theory, the Seahawks could probably stay put and have one of those three fall to them at No. 5, and then sign Geno Smith to a one-year deal (if he agrees) and use him as a bridge QB while the rookie sits and learns in 2023.