Discovering a sports betting strategy that works for you isn’t easy. Some players back the favorites in mass parlays, chasing big payouts from small individual wins. Others pour over the stats and target player props, preferring to put their money in individual talents rather than entire teams.
However you bet on sports, having a strategy is considered a crucial step in taking your profits to the next level. Of course, the casual sports betting fan can still win big – but just like with casino games and financial trading, if you want to succeed in the long-term you need a strategy.
And researchers at the University of Zurich’s Business Administration department have discovered a counter-intuitive sports betting strategy that could suit players seeking to make long-lasting gains.
Researchers Oliver Merz, Raphael Flepp, and Egon Franck believe they have cracked the code of sports betting to produce a 4.2% return on bets – and it’s all about backing the loser.
Now, betting on the least likely winner of a sports game may seem like lunacy. But there is a mathematical method to this madness that the researchers stand by, having conducted their study across the five biggest soccer leagues in Europe.
Here’s how the sports betting strategy works…
How To Win At Sports Betting
The first thing the researchers did was calculate the expected goals (XG) each team across Europe’s five elite-level leagues would likely score in games against other teams. With that data, they could then calculate statistically what chance an ‘underdog’ had of beating a ‘favorite’ on any given weekend.
Armed with this data, the researchers then looked at odds in a betting exchange for soccer games in the top five leagues in Europe. Betting exchanges work just like financial or commodity markets – people set a price they think is acceptable for a wager on a sporting outcome, and others can accept that exchange in the form of a bet agreement.
It was found that the soccer odds for the favorite teams were regularly worse than the stats suggested, while the odds for the underdog teams were better. In this instance, the researchers calculated that always betting on the underdogs would, in time, lead to a 4.2% return.
“Our results stemming from the regression using good luck and bad luck show that the prices of bets on previously lucky teams are overstated,” the authors wrote. “Conversely, the prices of previously unlucky teams are understated. This finding is mirrored in consistently negative returns for bets on previously lucky teams and consistently positive returns for bets on previously unlucky teams. Thus, we form a simple betting strategy by betting on unlucky teams and betting against lucky teams.”
Of course, this calculation was only applied to soccer betting in specific leagues and using betting exchanges. However, it highlights the market pressure bettors place on favorites to win games, which subsequently depreciates their odds values. Likewise, underdogs who are ignored see their odds widen – and this is where smart punters can make their advantage felt.
OK, So I Back The Loser Every Time?
The research suggests that over the long-term a bettor will earn a 4.2% advantage by backing the underdog on moneyline bets. However, this doesn’t mean that you should back the loser every time.
There are scores of statistical analyses that are available to punters and not everyone will benefit from this tactic. Here are some pros and cons to using the ‘back the loser’ betting strategy…
Pros
- Gives you a 4.2% net return
- Great for long-term strategists and investors
- Ideal for learning about risk
Cons
- Reasonably high risk
- Requires big starting budget (to cover for lots of losing bets)
- Time and dedication needed to maintaining strategy
- Betting exchange used, not sportsbook
- Temptation to break strategy during losing streak heightens
- Big wins may barely cover accumulative losses
The other issue with this strategy is translating it to different sports. Soccer is the most bet-on sport in the world, with billions of dollars spent on wagers in Europe, Africa, Asia and Australasia each year. The simple fact that the moneyline wager also includes the possibility for a tie – compared to NBA or NFL betting where a winner is decided each game – means the method used for compiling the data in soccer is different from other sports.
However, the researchers maintain that “bettors do not fully consider the influence of good and bad luck on soccer match outcomes.” This can be extrapolated to wider betting habits, namely that punters overlook the possibility of worse teams beating better ones, to the detriment of their bets.
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