The NFL regular season comes to a close this weekend.
The 2022-23 NFL regular season comes to a close this weekend with two games on Saturday and 14 on Sunday – Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers was designated as the final game of the season Sunday night.
Essentially, six of the seven playoff spots in each conference have been locked up with one wild-card spot available.
In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles (likely East champs), San Francisco 49ers (West champions), Minnesota Vikings (North champions), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (South champs), Dallas Cowboys (likely No. 5 seed) and New York Giants (No. 6 seed) are all in. The Cowboys would win the NFC East with a victory Sunday at Washington and a Philadelphia home loss to the Giants.
Technically there are five spots locked up in the AFC, but the South division winner automatically earns one, so essentially just a wild-card spot up for grabs. In are the Kansas City Chiefs (West champions), Buffalo Bills (East champions), Cincinnati Bengals (likely North champions), the AFC South winner, Los Angeles Chargers (wild card) and Baltimore Ravens (wild card).
Let’s break down some playoff odds from Bovada entering Week 18.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski, File)
The only guaranteed win-and-your-in game for both teams is Saturday night’s Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville matchup. The winner takes the AFC South. There is a longer-shot route for the Jaguars to earn a wild-card spot with a loss: Also losses by the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Possible all three lose, but not super likely. Jacksonville is -330 to make the postseason via any route and no +235. The Titans are big underdogs on Saturday and not given odds.
If Miami wins at home Sunday vs. the eliminated New York Jets and the Patriots lose in Buffalo, the Dolphins earn the last wild-card spot but are -160 to miss out and +120 to make it. Miami might have to start third-string rookie QB Skylar Thompson vs. the Jets with injuries to Tua Tagovailoa (out) and Teddy Bridgewater (questionable).
New England is +175 to get in and -240 to miss and simply needs an upset win in Buffalo. Normally, a big long shot, but the Bills might not be mentally in a good place after safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field in Cincinnati on Monday night in Week 17 and nearly died. That game was postponed and if not made up (unlikely) would have huge seeding implications in the AFC – the Bengals would clinch the AFC North, but Buffalo would no longer control its destiny to earn the conference’s top seed.
Pittsburgh is -500 to miss the playoffs and +330 to make it. The Steelers are 3-point home favorites against the Cleveland Browns and need a win plus losses by the Dolphins and Patriots.
It’s fairly clear cut in the NFC. Green Bay is playing its best football of the season and earns the final spot with a win over Detroit – oddsmakers expect it, so the Packers aren’t given playoff odds. The Lions need a victory and a Seattle Seahawks home loss earlier in the day to the Los Angeles Rams.
Thus, Detroit (no playoffs -3000, yes +900) will know whether it has anything to play for before kickoff Sunday night. Seattle (no -410, yes +280) needs a win over the Rams and a Detroit upset victory.
