The UFC returns to the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas for the first time since August 2021, and Houston resident Derrick Lewis features on the main card as he did that night. Lewis takes on fellow heavyweight Tui Tuivasa, while middleweights Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier meet for a potential title shot. Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya looks to defend his title against the man he took the belt from, Robert Whittaker, in an Australia/New Zealand tussle.
All UFC 271 odds from the Bovada sports betting book.
Israel Adesanya (-290) vs. Robert Whittaker (+230) – Middleweight Championship Bout
Adesanya (21-1) was born in Nigeria, but moved to New Zealand as a child and fights out of Auckland. Whittaker (23-5) was born in Auckland, but fights out of Sydney, Australia. This fight was supposed to take place in Australia as the first one did, but due to COVID-19, they’ll stay in the United States this time around. In the first fight, Whittaker came out with pressure and got dropped by Adesanya at the end of the first round. Adesanya’s countering made all the difference as he continued to catch Whittaker and ended the fight at 3:33 of the second round. Whittaker has since bounced back from that loss with three unanimous-decision wins in a row, and he’s looked great in his standup. However, he doesn’t want to stand with Adesanya, who gives off Anderson Silva vibes in the octagon.
Whittaker might try and take this fight to the mat, where Jan Blachowicz smothered Adesanya en route to his first professional loss. However, Blachowicz was then light-heavyweight champion, and much bigger than Adesanya on fight night. Whittaker won’t have that luxury and Adesanya has been proven tough to take down by middleweights. Whittaker is excellent, definitely the second-best fighter in the UFC at 185 pounds. I just don’t think he’s better than Adesanya, deservedly favored by these UFC betting odds.
UFC 271 Best Bets – Israel Adesanya (-280)
Derrick Lewis (-186) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+151) – Heavyweight
Lewis was born in New Orleans, Louisiana, but moved to Houston when he was 13 and has been there ever since. Tuivasa was born and raised in Sydney, Australia and introduced many in the MMA world to the “shoey”, a celebration where Tuivasa drinks a beer from a shoe thrown to him by the crowd following a win. We’ve seen it more recently as Tuivasa had lost three in a row, but has since won four straight, all by TKO/KO, and three came in the first round. Even the second-round KO against Augusto Sakai at UFC 269 in December came just 26 seconds into that stanza. If you’re looking at the “Will The Fight Go The Distance” UFC betting prop for this fight, you’re looking at odds of -550. This isn’t going to last three rounds.
As we mentioned in our UFC 271 odds preview, Lewis has developed more skill over time and is a good boxer, moving in and out of the pocket. Tuivasa is a varied striker with a kickboxing background, which he is going to certainly use to go after Lewis’ legs. Lewis is going to have the crowd behind him, obviously, but Tuivasa is going to slowly chip away at Lewis before scoring a stoppage win for a sports betting “upset”.
UFC 271 Best Bets – Tai Tuivasa (+151)
Jared Cannonier (-170) vs. Derek Brunson (+140) – Middleweight
Cannonier (14-5) just might be the most powerful striker in the middleweight class, as he seems to have found a home for his power at 185 pounds after starting his UFC career as a heavyweight. Brunson (23-7) is trying to ride a late-career run to a title shot as he has won five in a row, and he sits fourth in the UFC rankings, one spot behind Cannonier. Adesanya is taking the #1 contender, Whittaker, and he beat Marvin Vettori at UFC 263. So, it stands to reason that the winner of Cannonier-Brunson will face whoever is champion at the conclusion at Adesanya-Whittaker 2, unless there is a third fight between the two. By the way, Adesanya knocked out Brunson at UFC 230 in November 2018, while Whittaker did the same to Brunson two years prior, and Whittaker defended Cannonier at UFC 254 in October 2020.
Brunson shouldn’t look to stand and trade with Cannonier; he’s a good striker, but Cannonier will knock him out with one shot. Brunson’s path to victory is through his strong wrestling and Cannonier can be taken down. Brunson has to smother Cannonier and maybe catch him with a late stoppage, but he’s a smart fighter and offers a lot of sports betting value as an underdog.
