Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Boxing Tips, Odds, Stats And Fight Preview

Canelo Alvarez makes his long-awaited return to the light heavyweight division Saturday for a crunch showdown with WBA champion Dmitry Bivol that online boxing betting fans are already wagering hard on.

Canelo last fought at the 175 lbs division back in November 2019 when he beat Sergey Kovalev to retain what was then his WBO crown. He since dropped down to 168 lbs and swept the super middleweight division, crushing Callum Smith, Avni Yıldırım, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant to unity the five titles.

Now he has his heart set on light heavyweight again – and Bivol is perhaps the unfortunate first target for the Mexican.

Bivol, 31, is unbeaten in his professional career and has successfully defending his WBA title nine times. Beating Canelo would prove to be his biggest achievement to date, however, and the mobile sports betting odds currently have the challenger as the favorite.

With this in mind, now’s the right time to explore the latest boxing odds and figure out if Canelo can be stopped in Las Vegas this Saturday…

Boxing betting fans could be in for another classic Canelo fight in Vegas this weekend

Canelo vs Bivol odds

Remarkably for a fighter who is undefeated in his career and holder of the contested title, Bivol is the underdog. In fact, bookmakers have priced the Russian at +400 to win this contest. Those are big odds when you consider Bivol is supremely comfortable at this weight category, and is rarely shaken in the ring.

In comparison, the sports betting sites believe Canelo has an 82% chance of winning this fight with odds of -450. That’s reflects the confidence both bookmakers and punters have in the Mexican making it win number 58 of his career.

However, one of the reasons Canelo’s price is so low is because no-one is backing Bivol. He is the relative unknown compared to the well-supported Canelo – and because of this, thousands of punters are piling onto the challenger, depressing his odds.

So, there is an argument that Bivol’s chances of winning are better than the 20% suggested offered by the bookmakers.

Canelo vs Bivol stats

From a physical perspective there is a big difference between Canelo and Bivol. This isn’t quite like Tyson Fury vs Dillian Whyte, where defending heavyweight champion Fury towered over his opponent. But Bivol is certainly the bigger fighter.

The Russian will stand more than four inches taller than his opponent, has a greater reach and has a fiercely defensive guard that is near-imposilbe to penetrate.

Yet Canelo has the hardest fists in boxing, and the agility to control this fight. The only worry for the Mexican, fighting professionally for a 61st time, will be the step up in weight. Moving up to light heavyweight can be an issue, especially when it comes to fighting into the deeper rounds.

Indeed, it may be that Canelo seeks an early stoppage here so that he isn’t dragged into an energy-sapping contest. “He smashes him,” Bernard Hopkins recently said of the Mexican. “Mash potatoes all over the place in smashing event. He [Canelo] smashes him.”

Canelo vs Bivol betting tips

It’s clear most punters are siding with Hopkins in backing Canelo to win here. In fact, so heavy are the bets being placed on the 31-year-old that it’s almost not worthing backing him. After all, boxing betting fans are having to wager a lot of dollars just to get small returns back.

But what is the other option? Backing Bivol right now seems a lost cause – even though he theoretically has plenty going for him. After all, Bivol is undefeated, knows how to defend his title, and has already seen to the likes of Lenin Castillo, Jean Pascal and Joe Smith Jr.

The big concern for Bivol, though, is that Canelo is a fighter like no other. He towers above most of the boxing fraternity and has a passionate fan base behind him at every fight. Meeting in Vegas, in front of a worldwide audience, is a little different to defending your title against Umar Salamov in Ekaterinburg.

“I believe in my skills,” Bivol said. “I have beaten everybody that I have fought in my career, I believe that I can beat Canelo as well. Every boxer has their strengths and their weaknesses. Nobody is perfect. My goal is to focus on my strengths and use them to my advantage.”

At +400 to win this fight, Bivol is certainly a tempting wager. But you’re unlikely to see many boxing betting aficionados wager too many of their hard-earned dollars on the Kyrgyzstan-born fighter.

Saul Canelo vs Dmitry Bivol prop bets

So, with Canelo’s moneyline odds so short, punters are naturally seeking better odds elsewhere. And that’s where the prop bets come into play.

This fight is -220 to go the distance – odds that may initially appear fairly short, but are actually pretty accurate for what should happen. Each of Bivol’s last six fights have been settled on the judges’ scorecards. Canelo usually goes for the KO but fighting at a higher weight division means he can’t necessarily rely on that.

If you’re a punter seeking to bet on a stoppage, then it’s perhaps worth backing the fight to end in rounds 7,8 or 9. The odds of a KO or TKO in the third quarter of the contest are priced at +650. However, Canelo is more used to finishing off opponents in round 6 or earlier. So perhaps that’s the time period to rely on.

The big risk for Canelo is the longer the fight continues, the more it could sway in Bivol’s favor. But the bookmakers still believe there will be a stoppage at some point Saturday.

“[Dmitry’s] a really good boxer,” said Canelo recently. “He’s a solid champion at 175. It’s a dangerous fight. I like it, I love that kind of challenge. I really like it. But, I believe in my abilities, and I’m strong too. So, I’m confident in that, but it’s gonna be a really good fight.

“I like the idea to be undisputed at 175. That’s what I like, but you never know.”