San Diego is a spectacular city but also one of the smallest markets in Major League Baseball, with only Kansas City, Cincinnati and Milwaukee ranking as smaller. Those clubs almost never spend big money on players, yet the Padres have been spending like the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers in recent years.
MLB 2023 Props: Could Padres Trade Star Fernando Tatis Jr.?
Might the Padres put Fernando Tatis Jr. on the trade market?
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In February 2019, the team signed free-agent Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract. At the time, it was the biggest free-agent contract in American sports history, but that’s no longer close to the case. In February 2021, the club agreed to 14-year, $340 million contract extension with All-Star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. At 14 years, Tatis’ extension is the longest contract in the majors, breaking a mark of 13 years shared by Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper.
During last season, the Friars traded for All-Star outfielder Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals knowing that Soto was due to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign and might get somewhere in the ballpark of $500 million if he hits the open market.
This offseason, San Diego stunned industry observers by making a huge last-minute offer to Aaron Judge, but he was already down the road toward re-singing with the Yankees. Instead, the team pivoted to sign Boston Red Sox All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million contract to give the team a Fearsome Foursome in the lineup along with the three guys listed above.
The Padres are now the first team in MLB history to have three players making at least $300 million, all of them infielders. Where is all this money coming from? And could it make Tatis Jr. expendable? Let’s break down a prop on where Tatis will be playing at the end of the 2023 season.
Tatis Moving To OutfieldÂ
San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., third from the right, looks on while being questioned from the media about his 80 game suspension after testing positive for Clostebol, a performance-enhancing substance in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
First off, Tatis Jr. will no longer play shortstop as Bogaerts will slot in there with Tatis Jr. moving to the outfield. The guy is a monster at the plate but can’t stay healthy and the thinking is that playing the outfield will help in that regard. He was limited to 84 games as a rookie, 59 in 2020 and 130 in 2021.
After hitting a National League-leading 42 home runs and making his first All-Star team in ‘21, Tatis injured his wrist in a fall off a motorcycle last December. Needless to say, the Padres were not happy that their franchise player was doing something so reckless. To make things worse when Tatis Jr. was close to a season debut in August (he was on a minor-league rehab assignment), he was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance.
That really put off his teammates, and Padres general manager AJ Preller called the suspension “very disappointing” and said the team was hoping to see more maturity out of Tatis Jr.
“He’s somebody that from the organization’s standpoint we’ve invested time and money into,” Preller said at the time. “When he’s on the field, he’s a difference-maker. You have to learn from the situations. We were hoping that from the offseason to now that there would be some maturity, and obviously with the news today, it’s more of a pattern and it’s something that we’ve got to dig a bit more into. … I’m sure he’s very disappointed. But at the end of the day, it’s one thing to say it. You’ve got to start showing by your actions.”
It’s very hard to imagine the Padres trading Tatis Jr. unless he does something else immature, and that he’s still playing for San Diego at the end of 2023 is a -600 favorite. The other options: Yankees (+400), Seattle Mariners (+2200), Miami Marlins (+2500), Red Sox (+2500) and Toronto Blue Jays (+3300). Not sure what the penny-pinching Marlins are doing in there, but they do have a ton of young pitching that in theory could interest the Padres in any trade.
