NFL Week 16 Christmas Props: Which Will Be Highest- And Lowest-Scoring Teams?

In case you weren’t aware – or don’t celebrate it – Christmas arrives on Sunday. The NFL moved the majority of its Week 16 games to Christmas Eve on Saturday, which isn’t the worst thing because Dec. 24 is most years the slowest day on the sports calendar.

The league wasn’t about to go dark on a Sunday, however (it is the NBA’s biggest regular-season day), so there are three games on the schedule:  Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET on FOX), Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (4:30 p.m. ET on CBS), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (8:20 p.m. ET on NBC).

Of those six teams, only Green Bay, Miami and Tampa Bay still have playoff hopes, and the Packers’ chances are quite long with a 6-8 record. The Broncos, defending Super Bowl champion Rams and Cardinals all have massively disappointed despite each having a star-caliber quarterback in Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray, respectively. Stafford and Murray are done for the year due to injury.

Let’s break down some Christmas scoring props.

Rodgers Vs. Tua For First Time 

The highest total by far among the three holiday games is 49.5 for Packers-Dolphins, and while many cities on the East Coast will be dealing with major winter weather this weekend, that’s obviously not going to be an issue in south Florida – although it will be cooler than normal with highs around 60 with a chance of showers.

Miami is the +225 favorite to be the highest-scoring Christmas team with Green Bay third at +285. At home this season, the Fins are averaging 23.7 points per game compared to 25.4 on the road, which is a bit unusual. Defensively, Miami is allowing just 15.3 points at home compared to 31.5 away.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during an NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams in an NFL football game Monday, Dec. 19, 2022, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

It is a short week for Green Bay after winning 24-12 at home vs. the Rams in frigid conditions on Monday night to close Week 15. Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa is easily the best QB matchup of the day. The Packers have scored at least 20 points against Miami in each of the last seven meetings, but they don’t play very often.

Tampa Bay is the +275 second favorite as the highest-scoring team even though the Bucs have really struggled offensively this year in averaging just 17.6 ppg. Tom Brady looks done.

The Rams are +200 favorites to be the lowest-scoring team with the Cardinals are +215. Makes sense as LA is starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and he was so bad early this year the former Heisman winner was waived by awful Carolina. Arizona has to turn to third-stringer Trace McSorley in his first career start with Murray out and backup Colt McCoy sitting Week 16 due to a concussion.