How are the Odds in Vegas Determined for Sporting Events?

If you’re new to online sports betting, it can be a bit overwhelming when you first look at the verifiable smorgasbord of betting markets and odds available. After learning all the basics of betting 101 (including the differences between American odds, fractional odds, and decimal odds), you might wonder: just how do sportsbooks come up with their odds?

So just how do the bookmakers in Vegas come up with their odds for the spread, moneyline, and over/under markets for all the top sports in the United States? And how do they come up with odds on more obscure sports such as table tennis? Although this may seem like a mystery, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas have decades of experience and technical know-how in order to set all these odds every single day.

Let’s take a look at how exactly the sportsbooks of Las Vegas determine the odds for sports.

How Are The Odds Determined For Sports?

In Las Vegas and on online sportsbooks, the process of determining the odds for sports nowadays is an incredibly technical process. Historically, the head oddsmaker was the chief person in charge of setting the odds, markets, and sports available to bettors. While the head oddsmaker is still the key person at the sportsbook, technical advances have enabled sportsbooks to more precisely craft odds for a wider range of markets and sports than ever before.

The advent of algorithms was a verifiable game-changer for sports betting. By feeding large volumes of sports data into the algorithm, oddsmakers are able to determine the odds for more markets and sports than ever. This enables sportsbooks to offer odds on sports and leagues without the head oddsmaker being an expert on the league. In this way, the sportsbook can offer odds on massive markets like the NFL and college football, as well as relatively smaller markets such as Formula 1 or cricket.

Although it’s easy to answer the question of “How does Vegas determine odds for sports” with “an algorithm”, the amount of data used to set the lines reveals the main factors that both oddsmakers and bettors should look out for when thinking about sports betting.

What Factors Are Used to Determine the Odds for Sports?

For decades, the starting point for setting the odds in sports has been the power rankings. Although the creation of power rankings varies between oddsmakers and sports, many of the same statistics factor into the rankings. The first is simply the win/loss record and their recent record (over the last 10 games, for instance).

In football, a team’s ability to cover the spread against a particular opponent is also taken into account and this can be examined over decades to spot trends between teams.

For all sports, a team’s schedule is an important factor in determining the odds. If a team has multiple big games back to back, this could fatigue key players and put a team at a disadvantage. This is a particular concern for soccer bettors as teams can often have huge matches in the domestic league, domestic cup, and UEFA Champions League within a seven-day schedule. In football, the strength of opposition in the schedule also factors into the rankings and, ultimately, the odds as strong performances against tougher opposition will count for more than wins over weaker teams.

Although power rankings are a cornerstone of determining the sports odds in Vegas, they only form the basis for sportsbooks. As sportsbooks are always collecting data on the teams and leagues, they are constantly updating the odds as they receive new information regarding injuries, home-field advantage, and even the weather!

Injuries also play a key factor in determining a power ranking and setting the odds. If a key player picks up a season-ending injury or a COVID outbreak hits a team, this will surely negatively impact a team’s ranking and odds.

As we all know, home-field advantage is generally speaking a real bonus to teams in most sports. Having a hometown crowd cheering on their team can often make the difference. Oddsmakers will normally take this into consideration, but again the statistics can sometimes suggest that home-field advantage won’t make the difference in a given matchup.

Lastly, the weather and climate can make a massive difference which oddsmakers take into consideration. Although not strictly weather, Denver-based teams take advantage of the high altitude of Colorado to outpace their opponents. Recently, we saw the Canadian men’s soccer team use the frigid, wintery conditions of Edmonton to outfox Mexico in a FIFA World Cup qualifier. Rest assured that oddsmakers are feeding weather conditions into the algorithms when setting the odds.

As you can see, there is a multitude of factors that go into determining the odds for sports in Vegas. We’ve given you just a taste of what sportsbooks look at but you can use this to your advantage by doing your research before placing your bets. Maybe you’ll notice something that the bookies don’t?

Do the Odds on Sports Change?

Absolutely! As sportsbooks learn more information about an upcoming game (weather predictions or injury reports, for instance), they will adjust the odds accordingly. Furthermore, as punters place their bets, the bookie will also adjust their odds to balance that out. If a lot of bets are being placed on the underdog, expect that their odds will become slightly better to compensate.

If you’re interested in betting on a particular game, watch to see how the odds develop in the days and hours leading up to the game. Over time, you’ll start to learn when they best odds appear and therefore when you should bet. This will vary between sports, so what works for NFL betting may not work for the NBA or NHL.

Why are Some Sportsbook Odds Different?

When looking for the best online sportsbook, you’ve probably noticed that odds vary between sportsbooks for the same market on the same game. This is a result of different approaches between head oddsmakers and their respective sportsbooks as different operators will place different values on the same factors.

It can also be a result of regional betting differences. You would expect local fans to heavily favorite the local team, so odds for the Celtics and Patriots will be different in Boston than in New York. Ultimately, you have the freedom to shop around to see if you can find better odds elsewhere. It’s never been a better time to be a sports bettor!

Now that you know how Vegas determines the odds for sports, why not give real money sports betting a try on your favorite mobile device? Take a look at our reviews of the best online sportsbook to find the safest sites and play today!